Bitcoin boxed in below key cost bases as ETF flows turn negative

Bitcoin is being pulled between overhead supply from recent buyers and support from spot demand and order-book bids, according to Glassnode Research’s Oct. 14, 2026 report. At the quoted price of $81,695 on Oct. 14, the asset sits below Glassnode’s estimated cost bases for buyers from the past two years, while remaining above a cluster of on-chain and market support levels that have so far limited deeper weakness.

Recent buyers remain above water only at higher levels

Glassnode said coins bought 6 to 12 months ago have an estimated cost basis near $88,000, while coins bought 1 to 2 years ago sit closer to $100,000, using daily on-chain data through Oct. 13. Both cohorts have already turned price back earlier this year, and Glassnode said 1- to 2-year holders stepped up selling into the early-October rally. The report frames those break-even zones as overhead supply until Bitcoin can close above them.

The distinction matters because the report is cohort-based rather than a claim about every investor who bought during the same broad period. Current market data supplied alongside the report put Bitcoin at $81,695 on Oct. 14, leaving the price below both of those cost-basis estimates.

Support holds near the ETF cost basis and the True Market Mean

Glassnode places Bitcoin’s True Market Mean, an average cost basis of active investors, near $78,000, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis below current price as well. It also estimates the U.S. spot ETF cost basis at about $81,500. The report says Bitcoin dipped under that ETF benchmark on Oct. 8 and Oct. 13 but closed back above it both times, and that every daily close since Sept. 21 had held above the line as of the report date.

Glassnode said a daily close below the ETF cost basis would put the average ETF holder back at a loss and remove the nearest on-chain support. The report also noted that the largest bids on the Binance spot book had gathered at $80,000, just below the ETF benchmark, creating a band where order-book and on-chain support overlap.

ETF demand faded after a late-September burst

The report said U.S. spot ETFs bought heavily as Bitcoin moved above $85,000 in late September, taking in nearly $3 billion between Sept. 21 and Oct. 6, the fastest pace of buying since November 2025. That demand then reversed: since Oct. 7, the funds have seen about $760 million of net outflows, according to Glassnode’s summary. The report described the ETF bid as no longer providing fresh support behind price.

Related recent coverage cited by the source material also pointed to long-term holders staying in profit since 2023, but that broader cohort is not the same as the 1- to 2-year buyer group discussed in Glassnode’s latest note. Cohort averages should not be read as a verified record of every holder’s purchase price or tax basis.

Loss-taking has eased, but profit-taking is back

Glassnode said long-term holders have largely stopped selling at a loss, with realized losses peaking on Aug. 12 and falling by about 85% since then. The report compared that pattern with prior cycle lows, arguing that the selling pressure from underwater holders has mostly run its course.

At the same time, holders in profit have regained the lead in spending. Glassnode said that at the June low, coins spent at a loss outnumbered coins spent in profit by roughly twelve to one, but the balance flipped in late August. It now estimates that profit-taking outpaces loss-spending by about four coins to one. The report said that can slow rallies, but that a similar balance held through past bull markets.

Macro and derivatives add pressure from both sides

Macro conditions also turned less favorable in the report’s view. Glassnode said September CPI came in above forecasts, with headline inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 2.6%, and noted that Bitcoin slipped within minutes of the release. The report also said futures traders raised the odds of a second rate hike at the Oct. 28 meeting after the latest inflation print, with the U.S. midterm elections following on Nov. 3.

On derivatives positioning, Glassnode said liquidation clusters of similar size sit on both sides of price, with one just under $80,000 and another near $88,000. It said the shelf of levels around price thinned by more than a fifth in a week, leaving room for moves in either direction. A drop below $80,000 could deepen selling through forced long liquidations, while a move toward $88,000 could force short covering before running into overhead supply from higher-cost buyers.

Shallow bear-market structure remains the longer-term counterpoint

Glassnode contrasted the current cycle with the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, saying this one never closed below the Realized Price. Even at its lowest close, on June 30, Bitcoin remained about a tenth above that measure and above the Long-Term Holder Cost Basis. The report said that shallow drawdown left the average holder never fully underwater, and that the current structure still looks like an early recovery rather than a completed washout.

The report’s conclusion was cautious but not outright bearish. Glassnode said Bitcoin is boxed in between firm support below and heavy supply above, with a daily close above $88,000 and renewed ETF inflows needed to show demand absorbing overhead supply. Timing for the next verified catalyst beyond the Oct. 28 Federal Reserve meeting is not provided in the source material.