Warsh may skip dot plot as Polymarket lifts 2026 zero-cut odds to 80%

Fed Dot Plot Preview: “0 Rate Cuts in 2026” Jumps on Reports Chair Kevin Warsh May Skip His “Dot”

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, expectations that Chair Kevin Warsh may skip submitting a personal “dot” to the Fed’s interest-rate outlook are sharpening focus on how the central bank will communicate its path for policy. On Polymarket, traders pushed up the leading outcome in the “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” ladder, with “0 (0 bps)” now priced at 79.7%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices “0 (0 bps)” as the leading outcome at 79.7% in the “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” market.
• Traders repriced after reports that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is expected not to submit a “dot” in the FOMC’s interest-rate outlook.
• The contract resolves on Dec. 31, 2026; the leading outcome is up 12.45 percentage points over the past 24 hours.

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to release its dot-plot update on Wednesday, showing where individual officials expect interest rates to head over the coming years. Wall Street Fed watchers expect Chair Kevin Warsh, who has been in office since May 22, will not submit a dot, either because he is newly in the role or because he opposes the dot plot as a form of forward guidance. Warsh has argued that the dot plot and similar communication tools can constrain policymakers by anchoring them to forecasts for too long. The dot plot is part of the Summary of Economic Projections, a quarterly package that also includes outlooks for unemployment, inflation, and gross domestic product, and is described as a midpoint of participant views rather than an official forecast. Economists cited in the report said markets often react to the dot plot even as some question its accuracy, while others cautioned that reduced participation could send an unintended message to investors.

Polymarket Odds and Volume: No-Cuts 2026 Priced at 79.7% on $36.13M as Lower Rungs Collapse

Polymarket shows heavy conviction at the front of the ladder, with “0 (0 bps)” at 79.7% Yes versus 20.3% No on $36.13 million in volume. The next rungs are priced sharply lower: “1 (25 bps)” sits at 11.5% Yes / 88.5% No, while “2 (50 bps)” is 2.75% Yes / 97.25% No. Further out, traders assign only low single-digit probabilities to larger easing cycles, such as “3 (75 bps)” at 1.45% Yes / 98.55% No and “4 (100 bps)” at 0.55% Yes / 99.45% No. The steep drop-off across strikes signals positioning concentrated on a no-cuts 2026 outcome rather than a broad distribution of rate-cut paths into the Dec. 31, 2026 resolution.

Watch for further moves in the ladder as the market digests the FOMC’s updated projections and the degree to which the committee continues to rely on the dot plot as forward guidance into 2026.

Beyond the Fed: Other High-Volume Macro and Geopolitical Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching

Beyond the longer-run cuts debate, Polymarket traders are also clustering around nearer-term policy calls, with 76.5% pricing on “No change” in “Fed Decision in July?” on $11,590,531 in volume after a 16.0-point swing. Activity in these shorter-dated Fed contracts often spills over into adjacent macro and geopolitical markets as participants recalibrate growth, inflation, and risk sentiment in real time.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$36,126,757

Top strike rungs

+9 more strikes not shown

Related Markets

• Fed Decision in July? — No change 76%

Sources

• CNBC: Fed Chair Warsh expected to withhold 'dot' from central bank's interest rate outlook

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