Interest Rates
Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 75.5% as hike risk lingers
A recent commentary warns a Fed rate hike could trigger an immediate stock selloff, even if history hints at a better longer-term read-through.
Polymarket prices 60% chance of 2026 Fed hike after weak June jobs report
June’s U.S. jobs report showed payrolls rising 57,000 versus 115,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.2% as participation slipped to 61.5%.
Polymarket odds put Mbappé at 32.5% to win 2026 Ballon d'Or after +5.45pp
A new housing report says this spring’s buying season was underwhelming for a fourth year, with mortgage rates hovering near 6.5% after a late-February dip reversed following the US attack on Iran.
Polymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike drop to 58.5% after AI inflation talk
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting cited tariffs and “AI-related price pressures” as drivers of higher core goods inflation, with energy and AI infrastructure demand adding to costs.
Polymarket odds lift to 79.5% for Fed hold in July after CPI risk note
A research note ahead of the CPI release warned that shifting Fed policy expectations could drive near-term stock volatility.
Polymarket odds jump to 79.5% for July Fed hold amid risk-off swing
After a “Trading Day” risk-off note flagged stocks sliding and crude jumping when Donald Trump said an Iran peace deal was “over,” cross-asset moves turned defensive.
Polymarket odds lift July Fed hold to 78% as hike risk stays on ladder
U.S. stocks inched higher as AI-linked winners extended weekly gains, with Treasury yields also ticking up ahead of major bank earnings.
Polymarket odds hold: 56.5% on Sept Fed no-change after AI task force
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh named leaders of five outside-led task forces at the central bank, including an AI group led by Marc Andreessen, economist Charles I. Jones, and Xbox CEO Asha Sharma.
Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 slip to 78% after Warsh task forces
Kevin Warsh named experts to five Federal Reserve task forces to review policy and operations, with findings to be reported back to FOMC officials and potential changes expected this year.
Polymarket sees Sept Fed hold at 56.5% as rate-hike bets linger
After the Fed released June meeting minutes showing officials split on where rates end 2026, a Kalshi report put the chance of a hike this year near 54%.