Interest Rates
Polymarket odds lift to 78.5% for Fed hold in July as mortgage rates rise
Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate rose to 6.49% this week, alongside firmer Treasury yields.
Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed policymakers split on whether rates might rise or fall, while voting unanimously to keep the benchmark at 3.5%–3.75%.
Oil shock jitters trim Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates steady in September
A market note this week highlighted conflict-driven oil volatility and positioning as a key driver of near-term swings, warning it could ripple into broader risk sentiment and rates expectations.
RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5%
On July 8, 2026, New Zealand’s central bank lifted its policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50%, reinforcing that tightening cycles aren’t universally over.
BofA warns of equity snapback as Polymarket puts Sept Fed hold at 69.5%
After the S&P 500’s best quarter since 2020, Bank of America warned valuations could “snapback” as speculation runs hot and the Fed battles sticky inflation.
Tech wobble lifts Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in July to 89.5%
Technology stocks showed signs of wobbling as investors hunted for fresh Federal Reserve clues and watched what upcoming earnings might reveal about demand and pricing power.
Bitcoin tops $62K as crypto bill advances, Polymarket sees Fed hold at 89.5%
Bitcoin traded above $62,000 as a U.S. crypto bill gained fresh traction in Washington, refocusing attention on digital-asset policy.
Weak jobs data lifts Bitcoin as Polymarket sees 89.5% odds of Fed hold
Bitcoin climbed back above $62,000 after U.S. jobs data undershot expectations, underscoring macro’s grip on crypto risk appetite.
Soft dollar outlook lifts Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in July at 89.5%
This week’s US dollar forecast said the greenback looks softer while the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to pivot from its stance.
Weak US payrolls lift gold as Polymarket sees 77.6% odds of zero Fed cuts
After weak US nonfarm payrolls data, gold extended gains as investors reassessed how much room the Federal Reserve has left to keep tightening.