Polymarket
Polymarket odds on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 slide to 51.5%
A new report says U.S.–Iran fighting has intensified around the Strait of Hormuz, with repeated airstrikes over multiple nights even as diplomacy flickers.
Polymarket holds RFK Jr. at 49% for 2028 GOP nod despite Trump fraud claims
A fresh headline spotlights Donald Trump alleging a vast conspiracy to commit and cover up election fraud, stirring attention without signaling a new campaign move.
Polymarket prices Starmer at 99% as next leader out before 2027
A report says Donald Trump threatened TV broadcast licenses after some networks skipped a speech, escalating pressure tied to coverage decisions.
Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 95.85% after 24pp jump on $66.7M
A new market note said Bitcoin’s second-half recovery hinges on four catalysts, with macro conditions a key swing factor rather than an immediate driver.
Polymarket prices Trump exit by July 31 at 0.55% amid election address
A primetime livestream address by Donald Trump, billed as election-focused, was scheduled ahead of Polymarket’s late-July cutoff.
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by June 2027 jump to 18.5%
At 9 p.m. ET, President Donald Trump is expected to deliver a primetime address on elections and voting machines, as some networks reportedly skip live airing.
Polymarket odds flat as RFK Jr. leads 2028 GOP nod at 49%
A report says the U.S. is expected to host the Women’s World Cup in 2031, per a Trump official, adding a new visibility datapoint.
Polymarket odds put Lula at 60.5% in Brazil 2026 race after +11pp move
A political handicapper revised ratings in two U.S. House races, nudging a California seat toward Democrats and a Maine seat toward Republicans.
Polymarket: Eizenkot jumps to 49.5% in Israel PM market on $27.6M volume
A report detailed a clash between Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas over a party-funding increase bill and whether it was being tied to a Knesset dissolution date.
Polymarket odds dip on US–Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 after continued strikes
Reporting says the US launched another wave of strikes on Iran, the sixth consecutive night, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation.