Polymarket prices Iran invasion risk at 19.5% after expanded U.S. strikes
Over several days, U.S.
Polymarket 2028 odds: Vance leads at 19.95% as tape weakens after Graham report
Sen. Lindsey Graham was reported dead at 71, reshaping Senate math and looming fights like Todd Blanche’s July 15–16 hearings.
Polymarket: Hormuz normalization by July 15 at 0.35% Yes on $9.8M
After a new exchange of fire, the U.S. and Iran each claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, even as an initial deal to reopen it and extend a shaky ceasefire emerged.
Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 75.5% as hike risk lingers
A recent commentary warns a Fed rate hike could trigger an immediate stock selloff, even if history hints at a better longer-term read-through.
Polymarket puts Anthropic at 94.5% to lead AI model race after hires
Tom Blomfield, Monzo’s former CEO, said he’s taking leave from Y Combinator to join Anthropic’s AI compute team, alongside other recent star hires.
Polymarket odds stay firm on BTC above $52K by July 15 despite Iran strikes
After a fourth round of U.S. strikes on Iran, bitcoin hovered near $63,800 while gold, oil, stocks, and bonds swung.
Polymarket Golden Ball odds stay flat at 50% after Bellingham spotlight
A new analysis says England’s World Cup hopes hinge on X-factor stars, highlighting Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane after Bellingham’s two-goal, 2-1 extra-time win over Norway ahead of an Argentina
Polymarket lifts Putin exit-by-2027 odds to 20% amid Russia fuel shortages
Across Russia, drivers are facing hours-long and even multi-day gas lines as shortages worsen, with some stations closing after reported drone strikes hit refineries as far as Omsk on July 6.
Polymarket odds jump as July 12 leads Iran Gulf action ladder at 84.5%
US Central Command said it launched a third round of strikes on Iran this week, hitting about 140 military sites after an IRGC attack disabled the Cyprus-flagged M/V GFS Galaxy in the Strait of