Polymarket odds drop on Hormuz normal-traffic bet after conflict risk report
An IEA-cited report warned renewed US–Iran fighting could extend the energy crunch, after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly stalled again despite a reopening amid diplomatic
Polymarket odds hold: 56.5% on Sept Fed no-change after AI task force
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh named leaders of five outside-led task forces at the central bank, including an AI group led by Marc Andreessen, economist Charles I. Jones, and Xbox CEO Asha Sharma.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran before 2027 rise to 15.5% on $40M
On July 10, 2026, an analysis said the U.S. is pivoting from direct pressure on Iran to a hybrid, multilayered attrition strategy built around coalitions and peripheral reshaping.
Polymarket odds: Switzerland leads US-Iran talks venue at 28.5%
Iranian state media reported strikes hitting military headquarters in Bushehr and the port city of Konarak, while the US told Al Jazeera it did not carry them out, on the day of Ali Khamenei’s
Polymarket pegs BTC above $52K at 99.95% as July 12 ladder pivots near $64K
Bitcoin rebounded about 3.5% to nearly $64,000 after dipping near $61,850, a report says, driven by liquidations and a weaker dollar.
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normalization drop to 65.5% on disruption
Maritime tracking cited in a new report shows large-vessel crossings on a US-coordinated Strait of Hormuz route effectively halted amid renewed US-Iran fighting.
Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 slip to 78% after Warsh task forces
Kevin Warsh named experts to five Federal Reserve task forces to review policy and operations, with findings to be reported back to FOMC officials and potential changes expected this year.
Polymarket prices 99.65% No on Hormuz normal traffic by July 15
Fresh reports of new Iran conflict attacks surfaced as a Washington official denied US involvement and said technical talks with Iran continue.
Polymarket keeps Golden Ball odds flat at 50% as Mbappe–Messi buzz grows
France’s 2-0 win over Morocco set up a semifinal and kept the Mbappe–Messi duel in focus, with both tied on eight tournament goals after Mbappe rebounded from a missed penalty.
Polymarket odds lift Troy Jackson to 57.5% in Maine Dem Senate nominee race
A recent podcast episode detailed a rapidly escalating crisis around Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner, including calls for him to step down amid controversies and sexual abuse allegations.