Polymarket odds hit 8.5% for Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
Explosions were reported across parts of Iran as U.S.
Polymarket prices 99.95% BTC above $52K July 12 after NH bond rejection
On July 8, New Hampshire’s Executive Council voted 3-2 to reject a proposed $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond after a public finance hearing.
Polymarket: Switzerland lead dips to 27.5% for next US-Iran talks venue
On July 9, 2026, a report said the US expanded strikes in Iran, while Iranian officials reported civilian damage across Bushehr province near key infrastructure.
Polymarket odds for US invading Iran rise to 16.5% as Hormuz debate flares
At NATO leaders’ talks in Ankara, the US-Israel war on Iran and a dispute over securing the Strait of Hormuz eclipsed Ukraine and spending plans, with European allies refusing a patrol role.
Polymarket odds sink to 4.5% on Hormuz traffic normalization by July 31
After a June 17 US-Iran shipping MoU, attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and escalatory strikes revived closure threats, while transits stayed about 28 a day versus 100 pre-war.
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion Yes to 16.5% after renewed attacks
A report says U.S. and Iranian forces traded attacks for a second day after Trump said the ceasefire was “over,” with U.S. strikes on about 90 coastal targets and Iran hitting sites linked to U.S.
Polymarket odds jump to 86% for Fed hold in July after tariff inflation talk
A New York Fed post warned U.S. firms plan more tariff-linked price hikes over the next six months, with increases arriving in a staggered “trickle up” pattern as tariffs shift.
Polymarket prices BTC above $60K at 99% for July 11 as $64K stays 50-50
A live-markets roundup said bitcoin traded just above $63,000, up about 1.6% in 24 hours, as bitcoin ETFs returned to outflows and ether funds kept seeing inflows.
Polymarket Golden Ball market stays 50-50 as World Cup quarter-finals loom
With World Cup quarter-finals now framed as tense, high-stakes tests like Spain vs Belgium and France vs Morocco, attention is turning to who can shine on the biggest stage.
Polymarket odds peg BTC above $52K at 99.95% as July 12 ladder tightens
Bitcoin held above $62,000 as U.S.-Iran tensions flared again, while oil rose a third day and gold fell a fourth, leaving crypto relatively muted.