US Election Prediction Markets
GOP affordability feud hits headlines as Polymarket’s Newsom slips to 20.65%
Former President Donald Trump is facing pressure on his affordability pitch as Republicans clash over the SAVE America Act, complicating efforts to keep cost-of-living front and center.
Colorado Dem governor race grabs attention as Bardella holds 25.5% on Polymarket
A new report spotlighted the emerging Colorado Democratic governor primary, contrasting Phil Weiser and Michael Bennet on priorities and positioning.
Voter-pressure thesis ripples as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
A political commentary piece says voter sentiment, not Senate Republicans, most constrained Donald Trump’s Iran posture, highlighting how domestic incentives can steer foreign policy.
Trump curbs OpenAI launch as Polymarket prices Newsom at 20.7%
A report says the Trump administration intervened to limit the launch of OpenAI’s latest model, signaling tighter federal scrutiny of advanced AI releases.
House Dem election-threats forum nudges Bardella down to 24.5% on Polymarket
On June 25, 2026, House Democrats hosted a live forum on threats to elections, spotlighting concerns about voting risks.
Restore Britain taps Marlon West as Bardella slips to 24.5% on Polymarket
Restore Britain on Monday named Marlon West as its Greater Manchester mayoral candidate ahead of the 30 July vote triggered by Andy Burnham’s move to Parliament.
Schwab–Cboe prediction push as Polymarket puts Newsom at 23.1%
A June 20 report said Charles Schwab is working with Cboe on prediction-style, yes-or-no contracts for brokerage accounts, including S&P 500 level outcomes.
Colombia’s razor-thin runoff win nudges Bardella to 24.5% on Polymarket
Sunday’s initial ballot count showed Colombia’s Abelardo De La Espriella edging Ivan Cepeda 49.66% to 48.70%, highlighting how narrow margins can flip outcomes.
World Cup nostalgia essay hits as Polymarket keeps Newsom atop 2028 Dem odds
On June 21, 2026, an essay traced how a nearly six-year-old’s new obsession with the World Cup reshaped family routines, blending sticker books with YouTube highlights.