US Election Prediction Markets
U.S.-Iran MOU sparks backlash as Polymarket has Newsom at 23.8%
Over the weekend, a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was agreed and later made public, criticized for lacking verification and offering sweeping sanctions relief and regional commitments.
Scotland by-election podcast airs as Polymarket pegs Fujimori 0.2–0.3% at 92%
On June 17, Radio Scotland’s Politics Show ran a pub-quiz-style preview of by-elections in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry after SNP MPs moved to Holyrood.
Makerfield by-election heats up as Polymarket holds Bardella at 25.5%
With Thursday’s Makerfield by-election days away, Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon made final pitches in a tight race that could shape Labour’s leadership dynamics.
Moore wins AL GOP runoff; Polymarket sees Fujimori +0.2–0.3% at 93%
After drawing over $12 million in backing from the crypto super PAC Fairshake, U.S. Senate candidate Barry Moore won Alabama’s Republican runoff Tuesday with nearly 56% against Jared Hudson.
Georgia GOP runoff shock hits Polymarket as Shepherd win odds sink to 0.55%
Billionaire Rick Jackson beat Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in Tuesday’s GOP gubernatorial runoff, 53% to 47%, despite Jones’ Trump backing.
Newsom fights billionaire tax ballot as Polymarket prices Shepherd loss at 99%
Reports this week say Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to stop a proposed California billionaire tax from qualifying for the November ballot before the June 25 deadline.
$9M Polymarket World Cup win spotlights French race, Bardella steady at 25.5%
A new Polymarket wallet, “fishalive,” turned about $4 million into roughly $9 million after Cabo Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw, with the match generating around $64 million in volume.
Reuters/Ipsos poll flags democracy fears as Polymarket fades Shepherd to 1%
A four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll ending Monday found 38% of Americans doubt the U.S. will remain a single country in 250 years, and two-thirds say democracy is in danger.
Havering shelves 'Hexit' as Polymarket keeps Bardella atop 2027 race at 25.5%
After Reform UK seized Havering in May, council leader Keith Prince ruled out pursuing “Hexit,” citing a £70 million budget gap and warning residents could end up worse off.
Unison chief warns Labour drift as Polymarket prices Shepherd loss at 99%
Ahead of her first Unison conference, new leader Andrea Egan warned Labour must change course “drastically” or risk empowering Reform UK.