In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, prominent analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently shared an optimistic view on Bitcoin's market cycle via a tweet on November 30, 2025. He argues that the current cycle is far from over, pointing out that no key indicators have peaked, there's minimal retail interest, and Bitcoin lacks the extreme overvaluation seen in assets like gold and other commodities. According to van de Poppe, the notion that BTC has topped out is merely a time-based assumption without substantial evidence. This perspective challenges bearish sentiments and encourages traders to reassess their strategies, focusing on long-term holding rather than short-term panic selling.

Analyzing Bitcoin's Cycle Indicators for Trading Opportunities

Diving deeper into van de Poppe's analysis, let's examine the technical indicators that suggest Bitcoin's bull run could extend further. For instance, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC on major exchanges has not yet entered overbought territory above 70 on the weekly chart, a common signal of cycle peaks in past bull markets. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows sustained bullish momentum without the crossover that typically precedes major corrections. Trading volumes across pairs like BTC/USD and BTC/ETH remain steady but not euphoric, indicating room for growth. Without real-time data spikes in retail searches—such as those tracked by Google Trends for terms like 'buy Bitcoin'—the market lacks the froth that characterized the 2021 peak. Traders might consider this as a signal to accumulate during dips, targeting support levels around $90,000 if we reference recent historical data from early 2025, while resistance could build near $100,000. This setup presents opportunities for swing trading, especially in leveraged positions on platforms monitoring on-chain metrics like active addresses, which continue to rise modestly without explosive growth.

Comparing BTC Valuations to Traditional Commodities

Van de Poppe highlights a crucial disparity: while gold and commodities like oil have shown signs of overvaluation with price-to-earnings ratios stretching historical norms, Bitcoin's market cap relative to global liquidity remains undervalued. Gold's recent surge past $2,500 per ounce in mid-2025, driven by inflation fears, contrasts with BTC's more measured ascent. This comparison underscores potential for BTC to catch up, particularly as institutional flows from entities like BlackRock's ETF products—reported in financial disclosures—increase. From a trading standpoint, this implies cross-market arbitrage opportunities; for example, monitoring correlations between BTC and the S&P 500, which has shown a 0.7 positive correlation in 2025 data from market analytics. If stock markets rally on AI-driven tech gains, BTC could benefit, offering entry points for diversified portfolios. Avoid over-leveraging, as volatility remains high, with 24-hour price swings often exceeding 5% based on exchange records.

Shifting focus to broader implications, the lack of retail euphoria suggests we're in a consolidation phase, ideal for strategic positioning. On-chain data from sources like Glassnode indicates rising whale accumulation, with large holders adding to positions without dumping, a bullish sign for long-term traders. For those eyeing altcoins, this environment favors pairs like ETH/BTC, where Ethereum's upgrades could drive outperformance. Institutional interest in AI tokens, such as those tied to decentralized computing, ties into this narrative; news of AI integrations in blockchain could amplify sentiment. Overall, van de Poppe's view aligns with a strategy of patience, potentially rewarding those who hold through 2026. In stock market correlations, events like Nasdaq rallies often spill over to crypto, creating hedging opportunities against downturns in traditional equities.

Market Sentiment and Future Trading Strategies

Market sentiment, as gauged by the Fear and Greed Index, hovers in neutral territory around 60, far from the extreme greed of 90+ seen at cycle tops. This supports van de Poppe's thesis, urging traders to watch for catalysts like regulatory approvals or halving aftereffects. For practical trading, consider dollar-cost averaging into BTC during periods of low volatility, with stop-losses set below key moving averages like the 200-day EMA. Looking ahead, if commodities correct, BTC might decouple positively, offering breakout trades above $105,000. In summary, this analysis points to sustained upside potential, blending technicals with macro insights for informed decisions.