US ELECTION PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 82.5% for Brazil 2026 first-round No. 2
Sen. Markwayne Mullin defended tying election-security funding to counterterrorism support in a new U.S. political headline, reigniting debate over how those dollars are structured.
Trump says Iran ceasefire is over as Polymarket trims 2028 Dem odds
On Monday, Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over” and dismissed negotiations as “a waste of time,” signaling dim prospects for de-escalation.
GOP plans $8M ad blitz as Polymarket keeps Newsom at 18.2% for 2028
Republican strategists are lining up an $8 million advertising push aimed at a Platner replacement, signaling an early bid to shape the next cycle’s narrative.
McMorrow exits Michigan Senate race as Polymarket cuts Newsom 2028 odds
With a month left before Michigan’s Aug. 4 Democratic Senate primary, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her bid, setting up a tighter El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens showdown.
Trump emissions-rule pardons hit as Polymarket prices Newsom at 20.6%
On Truth Social, President Donald Trump announced pardons for business owners and truck mechanics convicted of violating federal emissions-control rules, calling the prosecutions excessive.
Democratic leftward primary wins leave Polymarket French race odds flat
After a string of left-wing Democratic primary victories, party officials and strategists are reassessing messaging, recruitment, and spending as moderate-progressive tensions sharpen.
US poll spotlights early race mood as Polymarket puts Bardella at 26.5%
A national poll released this week put Vice President JD Vance atop a prospective 2028 GOP primary field at 35.4%, despite no declared candidates.
White House to end USMCA extension as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.45%
A July 1 report said the White House will not extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, underscoring a harder line on the pact as trade politics intensify.
Colorado socialist upset lifts Polymarket: Lula at 57.5% for Brazil 2026
In Colorado, a self-described socialist unseated a 15-term Democratic congresswoman, spotlighting how quickly entrenched incumbents can fall.
Democrats ramp up election-integrity push as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
Democrats are intensifying a new push to counter Trump and Republicans on election integrity, spotlighting proposals they say could undermine confidence in voting.
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%
Kiros unseated Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette, ending her 15-term run in a rare Democratic incumbent loss that’s fueling 2028 speculation about shifting coalitions.
Fox poll chatter lifts Lula to 55.5% on Polymarket Brazil 2026 market
Bret Baier flagged a Fox News Channel poll showing Sen. Susan Collins up 3% in Maine and voters “extremely motivated,” spotlighting how tight margins can shift narratives.
Colorado primary buzz lifts Lula to 56.5% on Polymarket Brazil race
In Colorado, a Democratic primary is being cast as a stress test for a socialist surge’s staying power, with turnout and coalition-building under close watch.
US House backs kids’ online safety bill as Polymarket lifts Bardella to 26.5%
On a U.S. House vote, lawmakers advanced a children’s online safety proposal, shifting the fight to Senate negotiations that could reshape or stall it.
Supreme Court mail-ballot ruling as Bardella holds 25.5% on Polymarket
After the U.S.
