US ELECTION PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket odds lift Lula to 60.5% in Brazil race as Russia sanctions vote nears
A report says the Senate is preparing to vote on Russia sanctions next week, putting the issue on the near-term political calendar.
Polymarket odds lift Le Pen to 31% in 2027 French election market
A new data-driven analysis asks whether a Democratic Socialist could win a chaotic Wisconsin governor primary, spotlighting how crowded fields keep uncertainty high.
Polymarket prices Lula at 60.5% in Brazil race after +11pp jump
A new AARP poll in Georgia’s 2026 Senate race shows Democrat Jon Ossoff leading Republican Mike Collins, adding to other surveys that also put Ossoff ahead.
Polymarket: Le Pen holds 30% in 2027 France race as reversal signal hits tape
A polling headline showed Democrats up 11 points on the U.S. generic congressional ballot, highlighting how cross-country political signals can spill into prediction markets.
Polymarket: Le Pen odds rise to 30.9% in France 2027 race on $115.6M
A Fox News poll write-up reported Democrats retook an edge on trust to handle the economy, their strongest since 2006, as inflation and affordability remain central.
Polymarket odds: Newsom leads 2028 Dem nominee at 19.75% after pullback
Matched-topic chatter spotlights reactions to a FOX poll described as rough for Republicans on the economy and affordability.
Polymarket sees Lula at 60.5% in Brazil 2026 race after 11-point jump
An Arizona report said a Democrat-backed candidate flipped the Chandler mayor’s office, signaling a local political shift.
Polymarket: Le Pen at 30.65% in 2027 France race, Philippe close
A U.S.-focused headline about a left-leaning primary challenge House Democrats seem content to ignore appeared in the feed, even as attention stays on France’s 2027 race.
Polymarket keeps El-Sayed at 80% to win Michigan Dem Senate primary
In Arizona’s House Democratic primary, Rep. Greg Stanton beat a progressive challenger, underscoring how incumbents can fend off left-flank bids.
Polymarket: El-Sayed 80.5% in MI Dem Senate primary after slight dip
Carney blasted newly announced Trump tariffs, calling them a direct breach of an existing trade deal.
Polymarket odds: Le Pen rises to 30% in 2027 France election market
Republican lawmakers voiced renewed concern about Iran as a ceasefire was reported to be unraveling, underscoring how sudden security shocks can reshape broader political risk narratives.
Polymarket odds: Farage holds 95% in Clacton by-election market
Sen. Markwayne Mullin said federal authorities are actively pursuing a threat tied to a World Cup fan festival, signaling an ongoing security response.
Polymarket odds: Newsom slips to 19.85% in 2028 Dem nominee market
In Maine, chatter after Platner’s exit said Troy Jackson is poised to take over the baton, highlighting a near-term local leadership handoff.
Polymarket odds: Newsom slips to 19.75% after Maine primary dropout
A report says a second Democrat has dropped out of the Maine primary, reshaping the field and adding a new signal on campaign viability.
Polymarket odds put Lula at 59.5% in Brazil race after 10-point jump
After President Donald Trump’s televised address revived 2020 election claims, a report highlights conflicting answers from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and DNI nominee Jay Clayton, despite audits