US ELECTION PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket boosts Lula to 60.5% in Brazil race after Trump tariff shock
A report said Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, injecting a new macro shock into Brazil’s outlook.
Polymarket odds: Newsom slips to 19.95% in 2028 Dem nominee market
On July 15, 2026, a report said Chicago is competing to keep the James Beard awards past 2028.
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Polymarket odds: Lula leads Brazil 2026 race at 61.5% after 12pp jump
A report says Joe Biden plans to release a post-midterm memoir titled “Promise Me, America.” With attention briefly shifting, Polymarket traders still see a wide gap in Brazil’s 2026 race, pricing
Polymarket odds: Newsom leads 2028 Dem nominee at 20% as DDHQ outlook hits
A fresh DDHQ forecast calls for Democrats to win the House while the Senate sits 50-50 in November.
Polymarket odds put Farage at 96% in Clacton by-election market
After an ICE agent fatally shot Colombian national Joan Sebastián Guerrero in Maine, a fundraiser has raised nearly $300,000 and ICE reportedly paused most vehicle stops amid the investigation.
Polymarket: Le Pen odds jump to 31% in 2027 France race on $112M volume
A U.S. midterms poll analysis says “double haters” are breaking toward Democrats ahead of November, despite the usual backlash against the White House party.
Polymarket odds put Farage at 94.5% in Clacton by-election market
A report says a Russia sanctions bill could advance in Congress, with lawmakers eyeing the next procedural steps to honor Graham.
Polymarket odds lift Le Pen to 30% in 2027 France race on sanctions buzz
A fresh report says the Senate is exploring new Russia sanctions framed around honoring Graham, highlighting rising geopolitical risk.
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 82.5% for Brazil 2026 first-round No. 2
Sen. Markwayne Mullin defended tying election-security funding to counterterrorism support in a new U.S. political headline, reigniting debate over how those dollars are structured.
Trump says Iran ceasefire is over as Polymarket trims 2028 Dem odds
On Monday, Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over” and dismissed negotiations as “a waste of time,” signaling dim prospects for de-escalation.
GOP plans $8M ad blitz as Polymarket keeps Newsom at 18.2% for 2028
Republican strategists are lining up an $8 million advertising push aimed at a Platner replacement, signaling an early bid to shape the next cycle’s narrative.
McMorrow exits Michigan Senate race as Polymarket cuts Newsom 2028 odds
With a month left before Michigan’s Aug. 4 Democratic Senate primary, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her bid, setting up a tighter El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens showdown.
Trump emissions-rule pardons hit as Polymarket prices Newsom at 20.6%
On Truth Social, President Donald Trump announced pardons for business owners and truck mechanics convicted of violating federal emissions-control rules, calling the prosecutions excessive.
Democratic leftward primary wins leave Polymarket French race odds flat
After a string of left-wing Democratic primary victories, party officials and strategists are reassessing messaging, recruitment, and spending as moderate-progressive tensions sharpen.
US poll spotlights early race mood as Polymarket puts Bardella at 26.5%
A national poll released this week put Vice President JD Vance atop a prospective 2028 GOP primary field at 35.4%, despite no declared candidates.
