INTEREST RATES
Soft dollar outlook lifts Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in July at 89.5%
This week’s US dollar forecast said the greenback looks softer while the Federal Reserve remains reluctant to pivot from its stance.
Weak US payrolls lift gold as Polymarket sees 77.6% odds of zero Fed cuts
After weak US nonfarm payrolls data, gold extended gains as investors reassessed how much room the Federal Reserve has left to keep tightening.
Yen steadies on intervention talk as Polymarket sees 67.5% Fed hold
The Japanese yen steadied as traders weighed rising risks of official currency-market intervention and softer expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.
AUD/JPY steadies near 112 as Polymarket tilts 53.5% to no Fed hike in 2026
A July 3 technical note said AUD/JPY hovered around 112.00 but stayed below key moving averages, keeping a bearish tilt despite the pause.
Cooler June jobs report lifts Polymarket Fed hold odds to 90.5%
On Thursday, U.S. stocks split after June payrolls rose just 57,000 and jobless rate hit 4.2%, cooling expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Banxico survey cools inflation view as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed no-cuts at 78%
Mexico’s central bank survey showed private economists now expect lower inflation, reinforcing a softer price outlook that can ripple into global rate assumptions.
Kocher flags easing inflation as Polymarket cuts 2026 Fed hike odds to 54.5%
At 08:42 on July 1, 2026, Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher said European inflation is stabilizing as Middle East tensions ease, but uncertainty remains high.
Crypto rebound lifts risk focus as Polymarket sees 78% odds of 0 Fed cuts
Stellar and Pyth Network extended a rebound even as the broader crypto market stayed stressed, offering a rare bright spot in a risk-off tape.
Warsh speaks after hawkish debut as Polymarket no-cuts bet slips to 78%
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will appear at an ECB forum panel in Portugal, his first public remarks since his policy-meeting debut.
Global crypto rules near July shift Polymarket to 79.5% Fed hold in 2026
Late June and early July bring new crypto rule deadlines in the EU, UK, Australia and California, with Europe’s MiCA transition ending July 1 and firms facing authorization pressure.
Supreme Court Cook ruling lifts Polymarket July Fed hold odds to 80.5%
On a macro update segment, Jefferies strategist David Zervos said inflation should move lower in the second half of 2026, as the Supreme Court ruled President Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa
Analysts turn bullish on Applied A&D as Polymarket sees 78% odds of no Fed cuts
After its post-IPO blackout ended this month, Applied Aerospace & Defense drew new buy/outperform calls, with shares last Friday at $20.53 after a $20 IPO.
USD stays firm, Polymarket puts 2026 no-cut Fed odds at 77.75%
A 2026-06-29 EUR/USD analysis said the U.S. dollar still holds a relative edge over the euro, keeping near-term risks tilted toward USD strength.
Risk-on mood lifts July Fed hold odds to 81.5% on Polymarket
Broader markets stayed risk-on as traders tracked U.S.-Iran developments for any escalation that could jolt volatility and growth expectations.
Oil jumps on U.S.-Iran strikes as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 81.5%
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.71% to $69.72 after fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and a continued Strait of Hormuz blockade stoked supply fears.
