INTEREST RATES
BofA sees 75 bps Fed hikes as Polymarket keeps 2026 no-cuts at 77%
Bank of America updated its outlook this week, raising global growth expectations and projecting 75 bps of additional Fed hikes even as inflation cools.
BIS flags debt and AI risks as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 81.5%
On Sunday, the Bank for International Settlements warned that rising debt, an AI-fueled boom, and lingering financial fragilities could amplify shocks and complicate policy.
Trump taps Schroyer for ICE as Polymarket odds favor zero Fed cuts in 2026
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said he will nominate former Oklahoma state trooper Lance Schroyer to lead ICE as the agency expands after a $75 billion funding boost.
Bitcoin stays above $60K as Polymarket puts July Fed hold odds at 80.5%
Bitcoin held above $60,000 as scrutiny grew over Strategy’s credit-sensitive funding model and what it could mean for crypto risk appetite if conditions tighten.
S&P reaffirms US AA+ as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 80.5%
On June 27, 2026, S&P affirmed the United States’ AA+ sovereign credit rating and kept its outlook stable.
May inflation hits 4.1% as Polymarket sees 79% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026
After the Fed held rates steady last week, some Trump advisers signaled more patience with Chair Kevin Warsh even as inflation hit 4.1% in May.
Inflation gauge hits 3-year high as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 77.5%
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge climbed to a new three-year high, keeping pressure on policymakers and muddying the near-term rate outlook.
BofA flags 2026 hikes; Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 73.5%
After the latest FOMC meeting, Bank of America shifted its call to three quarter-point Fed rate hikes in 2026, citing fading tolerance for above-target inflation and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin
Tech-led stock slide as traders cut Polymarket 2026 Fed hike odds to 57.5%
U.S. stocks finished mixed Monday as big tech sank, pushing the S&P 500 down 0.37% and the Nasdaq off 1.32%, while investors awaited Thursday’s PCE inflation report.
JPMAM flags midyear rebound; Polymarket puts July Fed hold odds at 74%
In its 2026 midyear outlook, JPMorgan Asset Management told investors to stay in stocks for the second half, citing AI-driven growth and resilient consumers despite lingering inflation.
Warsh launches Fed policy review as Polymarket lifts July hold odds to 73.5%
After his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh formed five task forces to rethink communications, data, inflation views, AI’s impact, and the $6.7 trillion balance sheet.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Sworn In Amid Rate Cut Debate
Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair, with markets split on rate cut odds despite Trump’s calls for immediate easing.
Senator Tillis Drops Opposition to Warsh Fed Chair Nomination
Senator Thom Tillis ends opposition to Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation following DOJ's closure of Powell probe. Senate vote set for April 29.
Kevin Warsh Faces Scrutiny Over Fed Chair Nomination Amid Crypto Ties
Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick for Fed Chair, faces criticism over potential conflicts of interest, including crypto investments, and doubts about Fed independence.
Hong Kong Mortgage Approvals Jump 7.1% in December Despite Fewer Applications
HKMA reports HK$31.2 billion in approved mortgages for December 2025 as Hong Kong's property market shows recovery signs after four-year slump.
