IRAN
Polymarket odds jump: US-Iran invasion risk hits 30.5% after tariff news
As a stopgap tariff window expires, a report says President Donald Trump is pressing ahead with new 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 countries. Polymarket traders care because the “U.S.
Polymarket holds Iran regime-fall odds at 10.5% as US-Iran strikes escalate
A U.S. military statement said it began a new round of strikes against Iran as clashes intensified around shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket invasion odds for Iran jump to 30.5% after Houthi-Riyadh headline
A new report warned another Middle East “oil artery” is under threat as the Houthis are described as “testing Riyadh,” amplifying escalation and shipping-risk concerns.
Polymarket prices 10.5% Iran regime fall odds before 2027 amid US strikes
A July 23 report says the US military completed a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran.
Polymarket lifts Iran invasion odds to 29.5% after 12th night of US strikes
U.S. forces carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran, extending what’s being framed as a continuing campaign rather than a one-off action.
Polymarket prices US-Iran invasion risk at 28.5% as Congress debate heats up
Fresh votes are expected in Congress on whether the president should seek approval for military action against Iran, as Republicans weigh election-year risks amid ongoing U.S.
Polymarket hikes Iran invasion odds to 28.5% as U.S.-Iran strikes persist
After the U.S. military completed an 11th night of strikes, reporting said operations could intensify near an underground area by a major Iranian nuclear site as diplomacy faltered.
Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran before 2027 jump to 27.5%
On July 22, 2026, a report said Iranian air defenses activated and explosions were heard over Tehran as the U.S. military marked an 11th straight day of strikes, with fires reported in Behbahan.
Polymarket: No US-Iran talks by Sept. 30 leads at 24.6% after Rubio warning
In Manila at an ASEAN gathering, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran’s reported push to control and collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz could endanger global shipping and the world economy.
Polymarket odds hold 55% for US–Iran ceasefire by Aug. 31 after nuke news
A report says President Donald Trump approved a long-term Saudi civilian nuclear agreement that could allow uranium enrichment, with an announcement possible as soon as Wednesday.
Polymarket odds: Hormuz traffic normal by Jul 31 at 1.15% on $19.1M
A report says U.S.-Iran attacks stretched into a 10th straight day, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely stalled and energy prices rising.
Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran before 2027 jump to 27.5%
A July 21 report said Trump demanded “meaningful” talks with Iran while warning he could strike a nuclear site.
Polymarket odds of U.S. invading Iran before 2027 jump to 26.5%
Hamas elected Khalil al-Hayya as its new leader by a one-vote margin, underscoring internal splits over ties to Iran. Polymarket traders care because it could shift regional risk, with the “U.S.
Polymarket invasion odds for Iran jump to 26.5% on $45.7M volume
Near Second Thomas Shoal, Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed, injuring a Philippine sailor, as Washington condemned China’s conduct and Manila hosted regional talks.
Polymarket odds sink as Hormuz traffic normal-by-Dec bet falls to 55%
On July 21, Iran’s Guards claimed they struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted U.S. defense systems in Bahrain. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic normal by Dec.