IRAN
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%
A July 1 report citing senior Iranian sources said Tehran is insisting on keeping control over the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring a hard line on authority over the waterway.
Israel sanctions IRGC crypto wallets; Polymarket holds Iran blockade at 31.5%
On Monday, Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced sanctions on dozens of crypto wallets allegedly tied to Iran’s IRGC, aiming to choke off terrorist financing routes.
Trump crypto disclosure nudges Polymarket US-Iran deal odds to 45.5%
A US Office of Government Ethics report released this week detailed President Donald Trump’s 2025 financial disclosures, including over $1.4 billion tied to crypto ventures and meme coin sales.
Iran signals talks stalled, Polymarket odds fall to 14.5% on Hormuz normalcy
A top Iranian negotiator said a memorandum of understanding with the United States remains unfulfilled, and Iran won’t hold broader talks until it is implemented.
Iran rules out near-term US talks as Polymarket puts Dec. 31 deal odds at 45.5%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said there would be no Iran-US talks in the coming days, signaling no immediate diplomatic engagement.
Tehran presses for Hormuz control as Polymarket sees 7.5% odds of normal traffic
In a live war update, Tehran insisted on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while separate accounts pointed to talks involving the United States.
Hormuz halt report points to Qatar talks as Polymarket holds Doha at 48%
A report says the US and Iran agreed to halt Hormuz-linked attacks and plan Qatar talks on Tuesday to ease tensions around the strait.
Iran cancels technical talks as Polymarket puts 2026 deal odds at 45.5%
After recent attacks, Iran canceled planned technical talks, state TV reported, offering no new timetable and adding uncertainty to the nuclear track.
US-Iran MoU keeps deal clock ticking as Polymarket prices 44.5% by Dec 31
A June 28 opinion analysis said the US-Iran MoU is best seen as a pause, not a peace framework, warning Tehran may abandon commitments when convenient.
Iran warns on Hormuz as Polymarket July 15 normalization odds drop to 12.5%
Iran’s foreign minister said any challenge to the Strait of Hormuz would “increase tensions,” highlighting risks to the key shipping lane.
South Lebanon strike report drops Iran regime-fall odds to 0.05% on Polymarket
A report said an Israeli strike was carried out in south Lebanon in recent days, though officials haven’t confirmed details.
U.S. hits Iran again as Trump vows escalation, Polymarket keeps him at 1.65%
On June 28, 2026, a report said the United States launched fresh strikes on Iran as Donald Trump warned he would “complete the job,” raising uncertainty.
US strikes Iran again after Hormuz tanker hit; Polymarket sees 99.95% by Aug 31
On the second day of renewed action, the U.S. struck Iranian surveillance, air-defense, and drone sites after the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku was hit in the Strait of Hormuz around 4:30 a.m. ET.
CENTCOM confirms new US strikes as Polymarket puts Iran shipping hit at 99%
On June 27, U.S. Central Command confirmed new U.S. strikes, saying Iran had a chance to honor a ceasefire but chose not to.
Katz warns force vs Iran as Polymarket puts Dec 2026 US-Iran deal at 43.5%
Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would use “force” against Iran if Tehran blocks implementation of a Lebanon deal, highlighting risks of escalation.
