IRAN
US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds down to 5%
After a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command released video it said showed strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and coastal radar sites.
Gulf security flares pull Polymarket odds to 75% on U.S. House trip to Iran
After U.S. airstrikes, Iranian drones reportedly hit Bahrain and a ship was struck in the strait, adding fresh escalation risk around Gulf routes.
Iran rejects US Hormuz hotline as Polymarket sees just 3.55% for normal traffic
Iran’s IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said a proposed US-Iran Strait of Hormuz hotline “has not happened and will not happen,” as reports described renewed fire and a ship hit late Thursday.
Iran warns of swift response as Polymarket puts 59% odds on June 27 strike
A senior Iranian official said Iran would respond swiftly and decisively to alleged U.S. agreement violations, amplifying uncertainty over near-term escalation.
Iran cites retaliation strikes as Polymarket pegs July 7 shipping hit at 89.5%
Iran said it struck US-linked targets in retaliation for earlier US attacks, underscoring a readiness to answer pressure with force and widening concerns about escalation beyond military sites.
US strikes put Iran trips in focus as Polymarket pegs Trump at 5%
On the same day the United States carried out new strikes involving Iran, Iran’s national team stayed in contention for a World Cup berth amid rising tensions.
Reports of US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds to 0.15%
Reports said the United States carried out strikes in Iran after an attack on a cargo ship, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened a response.
US strikes Iran; Polymarket lifts Dec. 31 nuclear deal odds to 54%
On Friday, the U.S. hit Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites after a drone strike on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump alleges Iran Hormuz breach as Polymarket puts Jul 31 talks at 72%
Former President Donald Trump said Iran broke a ceasefire by firing on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, stoking new concern over maritime security.
Trump cites Iran funds for farm buys as Polymarket holds deal-by-Aug 31 at 25.5%
Donald Trump was reported saying the US would soon buy farm goods with unfrozen Iranian funds.
Inspection dispute cools US-Iran deal odds to 22.5% on Polymarket
U.S. and Iranian officials publicly disputed whether Tehran agreed to U.N. inspections of bombed nuclear sites as talks continued, with Trump threatening to walk away without inspections.
Bessent says Treasury to oversee Iran funds as Polymarket sees 99% for 20+ ships
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury will oversee Iranian funds released under Trump’s interim Iran agreement, aiming to steer money toward U.S. farm goods and medicines.
Post-ceasefire warning hits US-Iran deal bets, Polymarket Aug 31 at 23.5%
On June 23, 2026, NYU professor Arang Keshavarzian said the post-ceasefire Middle East is entering a fragile, uncertain phase, citing divisions over the framework and Hormuz security risks.
Iran vows Hormuz control as Polymarket prices 75.5% odds traffic stays abnormal
After talks with Washington in Switzerland ended, Iran said it will keep administering the Strait of Hormuz and that conditions won’t return to pre-war norms.
Hormuz rhetoric shadows US-Iran talks as Polymarket deal odds tick to 25.5%
After day one of U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland, U.S. stock futures slid and oil whipsawed as mediators cited “encouraging progress” even while Trump warned over any Hormuz closure.
