PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket: Le Pen at 30.65% in 2027 France race, Philippe close
A U.S.-focused headline about a left-leaning primary challenge House Democrats seem content to ignore appeared in the feed, even as attention stays on France’s 2027 race.
Polymarket keeps 2028 GOP nominee odds flat as RFK Jr. leads at 49%
A report says Donald Trump threatened retaliatory strikes on key Iranian infrastructure as the conflict escalates.
Polymarket odds lift to 85% for zero Fed cuts in 2026 ahead of meeting
August gold futures opened near $4,013 and later traded around $4,063 as investors looked to Wednesday’s Fed rate decision amid Middle East conflict and inflation worries.
Polymarket odds put Eizenkot at 51% for Israel PM ahead of Likud vote
Likud members are set to vote Monday from 11:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. on Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to hold party primaries, after repeated delays.
Polymarket odds price Fed hold at 85% for July as oil risk reshapes outlook
A July 22, 2026 BNY note warned oil risk could cap the Indian rupee’s carry appeal, a macro signal that can shape views on how restrictive policy stays into the Fed’s July meeting.
Polymarket odds peg BTC above $54K at 99.95% as $66K turns knife-edge
After a June 30 dip near $58,500, Bitcoin has rebounded to around $66,000 as options skew widens and perpetual funding turns positive ahead of the late-July Fed meeting.
Polymarket holds 2028 GOP nominee odds as RFK Jr. stays at 49%
A newly published, poll-focused analysis says Trump’s MAGA base is souring on his Iran war, raising questions about intraparty backlash.
Polymarket odds: Kane jumps to 41% in 2026 Ballon d'Or market
A research note said the Hungarian forint’s rally against the euro is being reassessed after rate cuts, underscoring how quickly expectations can shift.
Polymarket odds: United Russia at 56.5% after drone strike headlines
Ukrainian drones reportedly hit two Wildberries distribution centers in Russia’s Krasnodar and Stavropol regions, injuring several people and sparking a large firefighting response, with Kyiv
Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran before 2027 jump to 27.5%
On July 22, 2026, a report said Iranian air defenses activated and explosions were heard over Tehran as the U.S. military marked an 11th straight day of strikes, with fires reported in Behbahan.
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.95% in crowded 2028 field after AZ primary
In Arizona, a report says the state Senate president who gave 2020 election records to the FBI won the Republican primary for attorney general.
Polymarket odds: 99.95% BTC stays above $54K by July 24 amid macro rally
Bitcoin hovered near $66,300 around a two-week high as AI-linked chip stocks rallied and the yen slid past 163 per dollar for the first time since 1986.
Polymarket: No US-Iran talks by Sept. 30 leads at 24.6% after Rubio warning
In Manila at an ASEAN gathering, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Iran’s reported push to control and collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz could endanger global shipping and the world economy.
Polymarket prices Trump out-by-July 31 bet at 0.45 Yes with $1.85M volume
Republican strategists in Arizona are pitching a comeback narrative around a Hobbs–Biggs governor matchup, underscoring how campaign chatter can muddy national timelines.
Polymarket keeps El-Sayed at 80% to win Michigan Dem Senate primary
In Arizona’s House Democratic primary, Rep. Greg Stanton beat a progressive challenger, underscoring how incumbents can fend off left-flank bids.
