PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as Trump sits at 1.35%
After his initial Georgia governor pick lost the GOP primary, President Donald Trump shifted to backing nominee Rick Jackson and called for party unity before a tight 2026 battleground race.
Polymarket odds lift Lula to 60.5% in Brazil race as Russia sanctions vote nears
A report says the Senate is preparing to vote on Russia sanctions next week, putting the issue on the near-term political calendar.
Polymarket odds jump: US-Iran invasion risk hits 30.5% after tariff news
As a stopgap tariff window expires, a report says President Donald Trump is pressing ahead with new 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 countries. Polymarket traders care because the “U.S.
Polymarket sees July Fed hold at 74% as BTC nears $69K and ETF inflows
Bitcoin is nearing a $69,000 test as ETF inflows persist, even as pros stay cautious about positioning.
Polymarket holds Iran regime-fall odds at 10.5% as US-Iran strikes escalate
A U.S. military statement said it began a new round of strikes against Iran as clashes intensified around shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket 2028 odds: Vance leads at 19.85% as voter-roll claims circulate
A newly published commentary says DHS identified 278,000 noncitizens on voter rolls, amplifying election-integrity debate around prediction markets.
Polymarket odds sink to 51.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by year-end
A report says President Donald Trump warned of the largest strikes on Iran yet after retaliatory attacks across the Gulf, as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February.
Polymarket odds lift Le Pen to 31% in 2027 French election market
A new data-driven analysis asks whether a Democratic Socialist could win a chaotic Wisconsin governor primary, spotlighting how crowded fields keep uncertainty high.
Polymarket lifts 2026 Fed hike odds to 71.5% as Brent tops $100
A TV segment this week spotlighted Brent crude crossing $100 after Houthi strikes jolted oil markets.
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 98% to top AI model by July amid kill switch bill
US lawmakers have floated the “AI Kill Switch Act,” letting the DHS Secretary order certain AI systems throttled or shut down and requiring built-in shutdown controls.
Polymarket invasion odds for Iran jump to 30.5% after Houthi-Riyadh headline
A new report warned another Middle East “oil artery” is under threat as the Houthis are described as “testing Riyadh,” amplifying escalation and shipping-risk concerns.
Polymarket prices Lula at 60.5% in Brazil race after +11pp jump
A new AARP poll in Georgia’s 2026 Senate race shows Democrat Jon Ossoff leading Republican Mike Collins, adding to other surveys that also put Ossoff ahead.
Polymarket prices 84% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026 on $44.6M volume
A Rabobank note circulated this week warning elevated European natural-gas prices could persist, shaping inflation and policy-rate expectations.
Polymarket keeps 2028 GOP nominee odds flat as Trump Iran warning hits news
In a new report, Donald Trump warned Iran would be held responsible for any future Houthi attacks.
Polymarket odds peg Anthropic at 98% to top AI model by July end
The White House OSTP’s “Science: A New Golden Age” report calls for major changes in how federally funded research is run, even as it pairs pro-science rhetoric with proposed cuts.