PREDICTION MARKETS
Bitcoin steadies near $58.6K as Polymarket puts 99.95% on $52K by July 3
In early July, Bitcoin traded around $58,600 after June saw about $4.5 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, their worst month since launch.
Knockout bracket firms up as Polymarket cuts first-time 2026 champ odds to 21.5%
With the 2026 World Cup group stage complete, knockout play has begun and the final is set for July 19, as the bracket locks in Round of 16 matchups like Canada–Morocco and Brazil–Norway.
Zelensky warns of major Russia strike as Polymarket holds RFK Jr at 49%
On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Russia is preparing a massive strike on Ukraine, raising fears of escalation.
White House to end USMCA extension as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.45%
A July 1 report said the White House will not extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, underscoring a harder line on the pact as trade politics intensify.
Vance floats AOC for 2028 as Polymarket puts Starmer exit odds at 94.5%
In a recent interview, Vice President JD Vance said Rep.
ETF outflows weigh on Bitcoin near $58K as Polymarket sees 99.95% above $50K
Bitcoin traded around $58,000 as U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs logged eight straight weeks of outflows totaling nearly $2.2 billion, raising fears of a slide toward $53,000.
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%
On July 1, 2026, a TV report said the Iran war is redirecting tourists from the Middle East to Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Spain, though higher costs and fuel prices still bite.
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%
A July 1 report citing senior Iranian sources said Tehran is insisting on keeping control over the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring a hard line on authority over the waterway.
Colorado socialist upset lifts Polymarket: Lula at 57.5% for Brazil 2026
In Colorado, a self-described socialist unseated a 15-term Democratic congresswoman, spotlighting how quickly entrenched incumbents can fall.
Zelenskyy touts repeat Ufa strike as Polymarket lifts Eizenkot to 40.55%
In a recent address, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine hit Russia’s Ufa oil refinery for the second time in a week and also struck a missile-components plant in Penza, claims Russia hasn’t confirmed.
Birthright citizenship case stirs 2028 buzz as Polymarket holds RFK Jr. at 49%
A commentary circulating July 1 blasted a court’s 5-4 birthright citizenship vote as a “scandal,” arguing it could reshape immigration and constitutional debates.
Democrats ramp up election-integrity push as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
Democrats are intensifying a new push to counter Trump and Republicans on election integrity, spotlighting proposals they say could undermine confidence in voting.
Israel sanctions IRGC crypto wallets; Polymarket holds Iran blockade at 31.5%
On Monday, Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced sanctions on dozens of crypto wallets allegedly tied to Iran’s IRGC, aiming to choke off terrorist financing routes.
Moskowitz poll stirs 2028 chatter as Polymarket prices Vance at 19.85%
A new survey shows Rep. Jared Moskowitz up 32 points in Florida’s 25th District Democratic primary, an early signal of intraparty strength ahead of voting.
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%
Kiros unseated Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette, ending her 15-term run in a rare Democratic incumbent loss that’s fueling 2028 speculation about shifting coalitions.
