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Polymarket drops Iran regime-fall odds to 8.5% amid ceasefire strain
Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are testing a fragile Iran–US ceasefire extension amid renewed strikes and missile/drone exchanges.
US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5%
On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal
Tuesday, US Central Command said it began strikes on Iran after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran promising a “crushing response.” Polymarket
Trump scraps Iran MoU, oil jumps as Polymarket prices Hormuz normalcy at 0.85%
U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran memorandum to end the conflict was “over” and warned of additional strikes Wednesday night, sending oil up and stocks lower.
Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5%
A report said Donald Trump claimed the U.S. attacked Iran’s Kharg Island the previous night and floated reinstating a blockade of Iranian ports.
US strikes Iran, Polymarket invasion odds rise to 14.5%
Early Wednesday, the U.S. launched dozens of strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, rattling markets and raising escalation fears.
Oil jumps on U.S.-Iran tensions as Polymarket puts Hormuz fees at 76% by Dec 31
Brent climbed over 3% to $76.48 a barrel at 06:30 GMT after renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran attack report clouds US-Iran talks as Polymarket Switzerland slips to 31%
A report said Iran attacked Kuwait and Bahrain, reigniting US-Iran tensions and casting doubt on near-term logistics for follow-on talks.
US strikes on Iran lift Polymarket invasion odds to 14.5%
CENTCOM said the U.S. military launched “powerful strikes” against Iran to impose “heavy costs,” escalating pressure on Tehran.

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