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Polymarket: US invade Iran odds rise to 14.5% on talks and ceasefire noise
Trump said the U.S. would keep talks after Iran sought negotiations, then wrote the June 17 ceasefire is “over,” as Tehran disputed the request and clashes persisted near Hormuz traffic.
Polymarket: Hormuz normal-by-Jul15 odds at 0.35% as No hits 99.65%
A report says US-Iran tensions spiked during a 60-day negotiation window, with attacks linked to Strait of Hormuz shipping even as officials signal talks may continue.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran before 2027 rise to 15.5% on $40M
On July 10, 2026, an analysis said the U.S. is pivoting from direct pressure on Iran to a hybrid, multilayered attrition strategy built around coalitions and peripheral reshaping.
Polymarket odds: Switzerland leads US-Iran talks venue at 28.5%
Iranian state media reported strikes hitting military headquarters in Bushehr and the port city of Konarak, while the US told Al Jazeera it did not carry them out, on the day of Ali Khamenei’s
Polymarket odds for US invading Iran rise to 16.5% as Hormuz debate flares
At NATO leaders’ talks in Ankara, the US-Israel war on Iran and a dispute over securing the Strait of Hormuz eclipsed Ukraine and spending plans, with European allies refusing a patrol role.
Polymarket odds sink to 4.5% on Hormuz traffic normalization by July 31
After a June 17 US-Iran shipping MoU, attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and escalatory strikes revived closure threats, while transits stayed about 28 a day versus 100 pre-war.
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion Yes to 16.5% after renewed attacks
A report says U.S. and Iranian forces traded attacks for a second day after Trump said the ceasefire was “over,” with U.S. strikes on about 90 coastal targets and Iran hitting sites linked to U.S.
Polymarket odds slide to 61.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31
Washington said it will lift Syria’s “state sponsor of terrorism” label in 45 days unless Congress blocks it, after Trump met President Ahmed al-Sharaa at a NATO summit in Turkey.
Polymarket keeps Iran regime-fall odds at 2.45% as ceasefire rift flares
At a NATO summit in Turkiye, a report says President Trump called the US–Iran ceasefire MOU “over,” after US strikes followed a promised pause tied to Ali Khamenei’s funeral.

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