BTC On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Signals as Price Holds $75K
Tony Kim Apr 20, 2026 16:04
Glassnode's Week 17 analysis reveals conflicting Bitcoin market signals: strong ETF inflows offset by rising futures shorts and spot selling pressure.
Bitcoin's on-chain metrics are flashing contradictory signals this week, with strong ETF demand clashing against rising bearish positioning in derivatives markets, according to Glassnode's latest Market Pulse report released April 20.
BTC traded at $75,342 as of April 19, down 0.76% over 24 hours after retreating from a six-week high near $78,000 earlier in the week. The pullback aligns with what Glassnode describes as "a blend of contrasting signals" across spot, futures, and options markets.
Spot Markets: Buyers Present, But Sellers Gaining Ground
The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has flipped from positive to negative, signaling increased selling pressure. Yet buyer interest remains strong enough to potentially buffer against significant price declines, the report notes. Trading activity on centralized exchanges has picked up, suggesting traders aren't sitting on the sidelines.
Derivatives Tell a Different Story
Futures open interest has climbed, indicating traders are taking on more risk. But the direction of that risk has shifted bearish. Long-side funding payments have declined significantly, while perpetual CVD has dropped sharply. Translation: traders are paying a premium to short Bitcoin, and buy-side aggression has cooled.
Options markets offer a counterpoint. Demand for downside protection has decreased, suggesting the most bearish hedging activity may be fading. Open interest contraction in options could mean profit-taking or position closures are underway.
ETF Flows Remain a Bright Spot
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue showing strength. The ETF MVRV ratio has increased alongside positive netflows, pointing to enhanced profitability for ETF holders and sustained institutional interest. Trading activity in these regulated products has notably increased.
This tracks with broader observations that ETF inflows are returning to Bitcoin even as spot markets show selling pressure—a dynamic that's kept prices supported despite the retreat from recent highs.
Long-Term Holders Aren't Budging
On the liquidity front, Hot Capital Share has declined while Realized Cap Change remains negative but improving. This indicates older, more dormant capital is dominant, with net outflows easing. The Short-Term Holder to Long-Term Holder Supply Ratio remains stable, suggesting long-term holders maintain confidence despite recent volatility.
Improvements in Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Percent Supply in Profit signal potential stabilization, with reduced pessimism across the market. However, the Realized Profit to Loss Ratio has dropped, indicating some fear-driven selling persists.
What Traders Should Watch
Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 hit 0.74 in early March, and the asset continues trading more like equities than digital gold. The $76,000-$78,000 resistance zone remains the key technical level. A sustained break above could shift the derivatives positioning that's currently leaning bearish.
For now, the market sits in a tug-of-war: institutional demand through ETFs versus short-term bearish positioning in futures. Which side wins likely determines whether Bitcoin retests its recent highs or consolidates further around current levels.
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