Polymarket
Polymarket odds: Vance leads 2028 GOP field at 19.85% ahead of Trump address
A report says Donald Trump will give a Thursday 9 p.m. ET primetime address on elections and newly declassified 2020 intelligence, reviving debate ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Polymarket odds hold: 66.5% for September Fed no-change
Ahead of key U.S. employment data, Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year at 4.573% and the 2-year at 4.158% as markets weighed fresh disinflation signals.
Polymarket boosts Lula to 60.5% in Brazil race after Trump tariff shock
A report said Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, injecting a new macro shock into Brazil’s outlook.
Polymarket odds: Starmer exit before 2027 at 98.65% after Iran strikes
A report says the US expanded strikes into northern Iran and disabled a ship trying to run a blockade, adding fresh geopolitical volatility.
Polymarket prices BTC above $54K at 99.95% as dormant wallet stirs
A long-dormant Bitcoin wallet from the late-2017 peak moved 5,908 BTC—about $383 million—to a new address, not an exchange deposit, hinting at custody changes or an OTC deal.
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM race
During a Senate confirmation hearing, Trump’s intelligence nominee Jay Clayton declined to say Trump lost in 2020, saying Biden was “certified” and “I am not an election denier.” Polymarket traders
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claim
Iran’s Guards said they struck a U.S. base in Jordan, a claim framed as a discrete escalation involving American forces outside Iran.
Polymarket odds flat: RFK Jr. 49% in 2028 GOP nod market, $675M traded
President Trump appeared in a “Watch Live” item while speaking at a Pennsylvania Defense & Innovation Summit, with no fresh commitments highlighted.
Polymarket odds put July Fed no-change at 96% as $65M trades
A market note said gold fell as Iran-related tensions eased inflation-risk fears, boosting the dollar and reviving talk the Fed could stay hawkish.
Polymarket prices 99% 'No' on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
Iran’s army claimed it launched a drone attack on US military sites in Jordan, adding a new security flashpoint for the region.