Polymarket
Polymarket puts Putin-out-by-2027 at 17% after Arizona election settlement
Maricopa County election officials agreed to a joint oversight framework after mediation, setting an interim plan for the July 21 primary as early voting began in late June.
Polymarket odds of Trump out before 2027 tick up to 7.5% on Iran headline
A report attributed to Trump said Iran released an American detainee as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated, a headline some see as a near-term political-risk catalyst.
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights Tokyo
Tokyo’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said Japan is concerned about a US campaign targeting the ICC, underscoring its rule-of-law stance even as it relies on US security.
Polymarket: September Fed hold odds slip to 64% after Warsh hearings
After two days of House and Senate questioning, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh drew few major missteps as lawmakers pressed that prices are still rising too fast and he ordered reviews of inflation gauges.
Polymarket odds of US invasion of Iran rise to 20.5% after strike reports
Iran’s top negotiator said an interim peace understanding was voided after U.S.
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tape
A report says JD Vance said the Trump administration “absolutely screwed up” the Epstein files release, thrusting his messaging back into focus.
Polymarket odds: Newsom slips to 19.95% in 2028 Dem nominee market
On July 15, 2026, a report said Chicago is competing to keep the James Beard awards past 2028.
Polymarket holds 2028 GOP nom odds flat at 49% as hearing stirs 2020 debate
In a new report, Sen. Jon Ossoff pressed John Clayton about who won the 2020 election, reviving disputed claims in a formal hearing setting.
Polymarket prices Starmer at 98.75% to be next leader out before 2027
Democrats grilled intel nominee Jay Clayton in a tense confirmation hearing, spotlighting scrutiny of the nomination process.
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Polymarket odds: Lula leads Brazil 2026 race at 61.5% after 12pp jump
A report says Joe Biden plans to release a post-midterm memoir titled “Promise Me, America.” With attention briefly shifting, Polymarket traders still see a wide gap in Brazil’s 2026 race, pricing