Prediction Markets
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 98% to top AI model by July amid kill switch bill
US lawmakers have floated the “AI Kill Switch Act,” letting the DHS Secretary order certain AI systems throttled or shut down and requiring built-in shutdown controls.
Polymarket invasion odds for Iran jump to 30.5% after Houthi-Riyadh headline
A new report warned another Middle East “oil artery” is under threat as the Houthis are described as “testing Riyadh,” amplifying escalation and shipping-risk concerns.
Polymarket prices Lula at 60.5% in Brazil race after +11pp jump
A new AARP poll in Georgia’s 2026 Senate race shows Democrat Jon Ossoff leading Republican Mike Collins, adding to other surveys that also put Ossoff ahead.
Polymarket prices 84% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026 on $44.6M volume
A Rabobank note circulated this week warning elevated European natural-gas prices could persist, shaping inflation and policy-rate expectations.
Polymarket keeps 2028 GOP nominee odds flat as Trump Iran warning hits news
In a new report, Donald Trump warned Iran would be held responsible for any future Houthi attacks.
Polymarket odds peg Anthropic at 98% to top AI model by July end
The White House OSTP’s “Science: A New Golden Age” report calls for major changes in how federally funded research is run, even as it pairs pro-science rhetoric with proposed cuts.
Polymarket 2028 odds stay split as Vance leads 19.95% amid Trump tariff jitters
A new report says Trump has reignited a tariff fight despite legal setbacks, spooking GOP allies and rivals as they reposition.
Polymarket: Le Pen holds 30% in 2027 France race as reversal signal hits tape
A polling headline showed Democrats up 11 points on the U.S. generic congressional ballot, highlighting how cross-country political signals can spill into prediction markets.
Polymarket puts Sept Fed hike at 50.5% on $4M volume amid oil, yields
A recent report pointed to surging oil prices and rising global bond yields, reviving inflation worries ahead of the Fed’s September meeting.
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by mid-2027 jump to 15.5% on EU sanctions
After weeks of negotiations, EU countries agreed a softened 21st Russia sanctions package targeting energy, finance, crypto and trade, while keeping the oil price cap frozen for 12 months.