Polymarket odds: Vance 19.85% in 2028 race as China denies Trump claim
China has rejected Donald Trump’s claim of election interference, calling it “groundless accusations.” Polymarket traders are watching whether the dispute reshapes 2028 expectations, where JD Vance
Polymarket: Le Pen jumps to 33% in France 2027 race, volume tops $114M
A report said several major U.S. broadcasters didn’t air President Donald Trump’s prime-time election-security address on their main platforms, prompting threats of sanctions and license revocations.
Polymarket prices 99.95% BTC above $52K by July 20 as ETH vol bet looms
Ahead of July 24 expiry, a trader opened a roughly $28 million notional ETH long straddle at a $1,875 strike, risking about $852,000 in premium to bet on a big move.
Polymarket odds on Hormuz traffic normalizing by Dec. 31 slide to 51.5%
A new report says U.S.–Iran fighting has intensified around the Strait of Hormuz, with repeated airstrikes over multiple nights even as diplomacy flickers.
Polymarket holds RFK Jr. at 49% for 2028 GOP nod despite Trump fraud claims
A fresh headline spotlights Donald Trump alleging a vast conspiracy to commit and cover up election fraud, stirring attention without signaling a new campaign move.
Polymarket prices Starmer at 99% as next leader out before 2027
A report says Donald Trump threatened TV broadcast licenses after some networks skipped a speech, escalating pressure tied to coverage decisions.
Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 95.85% after 24pp jump on $66.7M
A new market note said Bitcoin’s second-half recovery hinges on four catalysts, with macro conditions a key swing factor rather than an immediate driver.
Polymarket prices Trump exit by July 31 at 0.55% amid election address
A primetime livestream address by Donald Trump, billed as election-focused, was scheduled ahead of Polymarket’s late-July cutoff.
Polymarket prices 0 Fed cuts in 2026 at 83.8% after decoupling comments
A China-focused investor warned that finance, not AI, is China’s bigger constraint, citing reliance on U.S. capital and rising frictions around cross-border fundraising and listings.
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by June 2027 jump to 18.5%
At 9 p.m. ET, President Donald Trump is expected to deliver a primetime address on elections and voting machines, as some networks reportedly skip live airing.