Prediction Markets
Polymarket: Vance holds 19.95% in 2028 field as K Street jitters mount
A newly published piece billed as “Preelection panic on K Street” highlights growing anxiety among Washington influence players as operatives position early amid uncertainty.
Polymarket sees Lula at 60.5% in Brazil 2026 race after 11-point jump
An Arizona report said a Democrat-backed candidate flipped the Chandler mayor’s office, signaling a local political shift.
Polymarket odds: Hormuz normalcy by Aug. 31 at 14.5% after UK pullback
The UK has withdrawn its diplomatic staff from Iran amid an “ongoing security situation,” adding to near-term regional risk.
Polymarket: Le Pen at 30.65% in 2027 France race, Philippe close
A U.S.-focused headline about a left-leaning primary challenge House Democrats seem content to ignore appeared in the feed, even as attention stays on France’s 2027 race.
Polymarket keeps 2028 GOP nominee odds flat as RFK Jr. leads at 49%
A report says Donald Trump threatened retaliatory strikes on key Iranian infrastructure as the conflict escalates.
Polymarket odds lift to 85% for zero Fed cuts in 2026 ahead of meeting
August gold futures opened near $4,013 and later traded around $4,063 as investors looked to Wednesday’s Fed rate decision amid Middle East conflict and inflation worries.
Polymarket odds put Eizenkot at 51% for Israel PM ahead of Likud vote
Likud members are set to vote Monday from 11:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. on Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to hold party primaries, after repeated delays.
Polymarket odds price Fed hold at 85% for July as oil risk reshapes outlook
A July 22, 2026 BNY note warned oil risk could cap the Indian rupee’s carry appeal, a macro signal that can shape views on how restrictive policy stays into the Fed’s July meeting.
Polymarket odds peg BTC above $54K at 99.95% as $66K turns knife-edge
After a June 30 dip near $58,500, Bitcoin has rebounded to around $66,000 as options skew widens and perpetual funding turns positive ahead of the late-July Fed meeting.
Polymarket holds 2028 GOP nominee odds as RFK Jr. stays at 49%
A newly published, poll-focused analysis says Trump’s MAGA base is souring on his Iran war, raising questions about intraparty backlash.