Supreme Court asylum win boosts 2028 chatter as Polymarket keeps Vance at 20%
On 2026-06-25, the Supreme Court backed Donald Trump on stricter asylum rules, reinforcing tougher immigration enforcement arguments.
Scotland routed by Brazil as Polymarket pegs Iraq group exit at 98%
After Scotland’s 3-0 loss to Brazil left them seventh among third-placed teams, Steve Clarke said he thinks they’re heading home as qualification hinges on other results.
Inflation gauge hits 3-year high as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 77.5%
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge climbed to a new three-year high, keeping pressure on policymakers and muddying the near-term rate outlook.
Hot PCE inflation fuels rate-hike talk as Polymarket puts Starmer exit at 89.5%
In May, the PCE inflation index rose to 4.1% year over year, its hottest in three years, keeping the Fed alert to another hike if price pressures persist.
Bitcoin futures hit $58,995 as Polymarket tags 99% odds above $54K by June 27
Thursday’s bitcoin futures slide briefly pushed prices to $58,995, the weakest since October 2024, as options activity skewed toward puts.
US says Hormuz flows near normal; Polymarket July 15 return odds jump to 42.5%
Oil prices slid to pre-war levels on June 25 as the United States said Strait of Hormuz shipping was nearing normal, even as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned vessels to follow Tehran-designated
Core PCE jitters hit Bitcoin as Polymarket pegs Anthropic at 98.4%
Ahead of Thursday’s 8:30 a.m. ET core PCE release, Bitcoin’s one-week options skew showed a near 25-point premium for puts over calls as traders braced for downside.
Judge blocks Trump student loan rules as Polymarket puts Vance at 20.55%
A U.S. judge on Monday blocked the Trump administration’s new student loan restrictions, stopping the rules from taking effect as litigation continues.
Anthropic-Alibaba IP spat as Polymarket lifts Eizenkot to 40% for Israel PM
Anthropic accused Alibaba of unlawfully copying capabilities from its Claude AI system, escalating tensions over IP in advanced models.
Deribit’s $10B BTC options expiry lifts Polymarket 54K odds to 99.85%
Ahead of Deribit’s roughly $10 billion quarterly options expiry at 8:00 ET, bitcoin slipped from about $67,000 to below $60,000, defying “max pain” forecasts near $72,000.