Polymarket odds jump to 94% for no July Fed change after balance sheet note
A Deutsche Bank note this week cast the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff as bearish for the U.S. dollar, sparking fresh focus on July policy expectations.
Polymarket odds put Starmer exit at 99.65% as US nomination news fades
A report says Troy Jackson has effectively secured the Maine Senate Democratic nomination, a U.S. campaign update that landed as Polymarket’s “next leader out” market kept trading like a near lock.
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by June 2027 jump to 17.5%
In an evening address, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is relying on ballistic missiles and urged faster air-defense deliveries after a large strike hit over a hundred sites.
Polymarket holds RFK Jr. at 49% for 2028 GOP nod despite DOJ court report
A new report says Trump’s Justice Department is preparing its next deportation fight in a court that has never been used before.
Polymarket odds on US invading Iran rise to 30.5% as No still leads
In East Jerusalem, a Knesset education chair’s surprise visit reportedly included vandalizing a school sign and vowing to shut the school, amid new laws targeting teachers and funding.
Polymarket sees US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 at 48.5% after Iran news
On July 19, Iran reported executing two anti-government protestors, adding political-pressure risk that can shift expectations for any “effective ceasefire” timeline.
Polymarket odds peg Starmer at 99.45% in $66.9M market despite Trump news
A new report says Donald Trump urged Congress to add Iran to a Russia sanctions bill, calling it “in Graham’s honor.” Polymarket traders are watching whether geopolitical shocks move leadership-risk
Polymarket odds peg BTC above $52K at 99.95% for July 20
A recent analysis says Bitcoin’s rally followed softer headline inflation driven by cheaper energy, while core pressure and tariffs may be understated and oil is rebounding.
Polymarket odds: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as consensus softens
After a deadly Jordan attack on US troops, a report says the US struck Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in retaliation.
Polymarket odds peg Israel-Iran ceasefire at 99.6% through July 18
Over the past year, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said it handled a record number of antisemitic incidents abroad, underscoring heightened security pressure beyond Israel’s borders.