Polymarket Wallets Net $2.4M With 98% Accuracy, Bubblemaps Reports
Felix Pinkston May 19, 2026 11:32
A cluster of wallets on Polymarket reportedly earned $2.4M betting on military events with near-perfect timing, raising insider trading concerns.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has uncovered a cluster of Polymarket wallets that collectively earned $2.4 million with a staggering 98% win rate on military-related prediction bets. The wallets reportedly placed precise wagers on key geopolitical events, including the February 28 U.S. strike on Iran, raising serious questions about insider trading risks on decentralized prediction platforms.
According to Bubblemaps, nine wallets placed major bets shortly before sensitive military developments, such as the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. Notably, four wallets each profited approximately $400,000 by accurately predicting the February 28 strike. While these accounts made minor losing bets on February 20—potentially to avoid drawing attention—all were funded through centralized exchanges within a tight timeframe, suggesting an effort to obscure their origins.
"The on-chain patterns appear symptomatic of someone with an unfair informational advantage," Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, said in a statement. He noted that routing funds through centralized exchanges and third-party services before placing trades may have been an attempt to mask insider involvement.
Regulatory Scrutiny on the Rise
The findings amplify regulatory concerns about insider trading risks tied to prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. These platforms allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, operating without a centralized bookmaker. Instead, prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, with contracts settled via smart contracts on-chain. While this model offers transparency, it also creates fertile ground for exploitation by those with privileged information.
U.S. lawmakers have been pushing for stricter oversight. On March 10, Democratic Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which seeks to ban federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, and individual deaths. The legislation followed earlier controversies, including $1 million in profits reportedly earned by six Polymarket traders betting on U.S.-Iran conflict outcomes.
California Governor Gavin Newsom also signed an executive order in late March aimed at preventing public officials from leveraging insider knowledge on prediction markets. Despite these efforts, platforms like Polymarket remain a regulatory gray area, oscillating between financial innovation and potential misuse.
Polymarket’s Role in Crypto and Beyond
Since its 2020 launch, Polymarket has become a leading decentralized prediction market, hosting contracts on topics ranging from geopolitics to sports. Users trade binary options priced between $0.01 and $1.00, with settlement based on event outcomes. While the platform faced a $1.4 million fine from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 for operating without proper registration, it re-entered the U.S. market under a regulated framework in 2025.
Politics-related contracts currently account for 12% of Polymarket’s weekly trading volume, according to Dune Analytics data. However, the platform’s growing influence has drawn scrutiny from regulators, particularly as its trading volumes and user base expand. Recent cases like the $2.4 million military bets underscore the need for tighter oversight to mitigate risks of insider trading and market manipulation.
What’s Next for Prediction Markets?
With the DEATH BETS Act and state-level regulations in the pipeline, the future of prediction markets could hinge on how effectively they address insider trading concerns. For traders, platforms like Polymarket remain an intriguing but increasingly scrutinized space. Whether these markets can strike a balance between innovation and compliance will likely shape their role in crypto and traditional finance moving forward.
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