Democratic leftward primary wins leave Polymarket French race odds flat
After a string of left-wing Democratic primary victories, party officials and strategists are reassessing messaging, recruitment, and spending as moderate-progressive tensions sharpen.
Iran ceasefire hits dollar as Polymarket odds for zero 2026 Fed cuts slip
After the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, the U.S. dollar headed for its worst day since April as markets flipped risk-on.
Khamenei funeral chills diplomacy as Polymarket pegs Switzerland talks at 31%
Iran has begun a days-long funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with large crowds and chants against the U.S. and Israel.
D.C. heat shuts state fair as Polymarket pegs Starmer exit odds at 97%
On Friday, organizers shut Washington, D.C.’s Great American State Fair until 5 p.m. after 11 visitors were hospitalized amid triple-digit heat.
Bitcoin tops $62K as chip rally fades, Polymarket prices 99.95% above $50K
In a live market update, Bitcoin climbed above $62,000 as the long-running semiconductor-led rally began to cool and risk-asset leadership shifted.
China patrol near Taiwan draws Taipei rebuke as Polymarket holds England 39.5%
On July 4, China said it launched a new coast guard patrol east of Taiwan, a move Taipei condemned as illegal while tracking two Chinese ships near Hualien.
Gaza ground-control report keeps Israel PM race tight on Polymarket at 38.5%
A London-based Arabic-language newspaper reported Israeli forces expanded ground control across Gaza, pushing the “yellow line” deeper and reaching Salah al-Din Road in most areas.
Trump cases update moves 2028 bets as Polymarket keeps Vance at 20%
A July 4, 2026 report says Donald Trump’s criminal cases remain a moving timeline, with multiple proceedings still unresolved and schedules uncertain.
Weak jobs data lifts Bitcoin as Polymarket sees 89.5% odds of Fed hold
Bitcoin climbed back above $62,000 after U.S. jobs data undershot expectations, underscoring macro’s grip on crypto risk appetite.
Khamenei funeral begins as Polymarket cuts Iran regime-fall odds to 6.5%
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral began in Tehran, with crowds chanting “Death to America, Death to Israel!” as the ceremony got underway.