US poll spotlights early race mood as Polymarket puts Bardella at 26.5%
A national poll released this week put Vice President JD Vance atop a prospective 2028 GOP primary field at 35.4%, despite no declared candidates.
AUD/JPY steadies near 112 as Polymarket tilts 53.5% to no Fed hike in 2026
A July 3 technical note said AUD/JPY hovered around 112.00 but stayed below key moving averages, keeping a bearish tilt despite the pause.
World Cup buzz aside, Polymarket lifts United Russia seat-lead odds to 56.5%
World Cup travelers in Boston, Dallas, New York, Atlanta and Toronto are turning match trips into food tours, lining up for lobster rolls, poutine and iconic fast-food stops.
Iran warns ships in Hormuz as Polymarket odds of normal traffic slip to 26%
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters told ships in the Strait of Hormuz to stick to designated routes and Iranian navigation rules, warning violators of an immediate response.
Cooler June jobs report lifts Polymarket Fed hold odds to 90.5%
On Thursday, U.S. stocks split after June payrolls rose just 57,000 and jobless rate hit 4.2%, cooling expectations for the Fed’s next move.
US seals $1 West Jerusalem embassy lease as Polymarket puts Netanyahu at 39.5%
The United States and Israel signed a $1 lease allocating land for a permanent US embassy in West Jerusalem, deepening the diplomatic stakes over the city’s status.
U.S.–Iran talks show progress as Polymarket puts July 7 Hormuz normalcy at 1%
After the latest indirect U.S.-Iran talks concluded, Iran reported “positive progress” and said a communication channel with Washington will be set up to address MoU breaches.
Antebi flags defense budget crunch as Polymarket keeps Eizenkot at 39%
At a conference, Bank Hapoalim CEO Yadin Antebi said the next Israeli government must rein in defense spending, warning it will shape living standards.
Pritzker questions Trump’s fitness as Polymarket puts Starmer exit odds at 95.5%
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker said Donald Trump is “suffering from dementia,” amplifying scrutiny over leaders’ age and fitness as the 2026 cycle heats up.
Bitcoin steadies near $58.6K as Polymarket puts 99.95% on $52K by July 3
In early July, Bitcoin traded around $58,600 after June saw about $4.5 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, their worst month since launch.