Ukraine reports Crimea strikes as Polymarket puts 2026 recapture odds at 13.5%
Between June 27 and 29, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said it struck Russian air defenses and fuel logistics in occupied Crimea, including a Pantsir-S1 and ST-68 and 48Ya6-K1 Podlyot radars.
Iraq sets militia deadline as Polymarket lifts Qatar odds for US-Iran talks
Iraq set a Sept. 30 deadline for pro-Iran militias to dissolve, according to a report, sharpening timelines around Tehran’s regional influence.
Qatar Iran talks spotlight Trump world as Polymarket holds RFK Jr at 49%
Trump administration officials are traveling to Qatar for Iran-related talks, highlighting how Gulf diplomacy may shape US politics.
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Supreme Court mail-ballot ruling lifts Lula to 55.5% on Polymarket
On Monday, the Supreme Court said states may count mail ballots that arrive after Election Day if postmarked on time, reshaping how tight results are administered and challenged.
Analysts turn bullish on Applied A&D as Polymarket sees 78% odds of no Fed cuts
After its post-IPO blackout ended this month, Applied Aerospace & Defense drew new buy/outperform calls, with shares last Friday at $20.53 after a $20 IPO.
UAE lifts Lebanon travel ban as Polymarket sees 18% odds of Israel recognition
The United Arab Emirates has lifted a war-related ban on travel to Lebanon, reversing restrictions introduced during the conflict period.
UN report on POW abuses lifts Polymarket Crimea recapture odds to 14%
From December 2025 to May 2026, UN monitors documented credible reports of 37 Ukrainian servicemen executed and widespread torture and sexual violence against POWs.
Trump targets Fed Gov Cook as Polymarket puts Starmer exit odds at 91.5%
After a Supreme Court decision, Donald Trump renewed calls to force Fed Governor Lisa Cook off the Board, reviving debate over presidential power and central-bank independence.
Supreme Court blow to Trump knocks Newsom to 20.5% on Polymarket
On Sunday, the U.S. Supreme Court dealt Donald Trump a setback in a high-profile legal fight, sharpening the political narrative around executive power and accountability.