Euro holds amid Middle East risk as Polymarket hikes July Fed hold odds to 81.5%
In recent trading, the euro stayed steady versus the U.S. dollar as investors tracked Middle East tensions and shifting expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Bolton guilty plea lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit by 2026 to 13.5%
Former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton pleaded guilty Friday in federal court in Greenbelt, Maryland, to illegally retaining national defense information, with sentencing set for Oct. 28.
Hormuz ship strike stalls UN evacuation as Polymarket Yes rises to 54.5%
After a cargo ship was struck near Oman, the UN’s maritime agency paused plans to evacuate over 11,000 sailors from the Strait of Hormuz pending safety guarantees.
May inflation hits 4.1% as Polymarket sees 79% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026
After the Fed held rates steady last week, some Trump advisers signaled more patience with Chair Kevin Warsh even as inflation hit 4.1% in May.
White House export standoff sidelines Anthropic as Polymarket odds hit 86.5%
After a June 12 export control order, Anthropic has kept its Mythos-class models offline for two weeks and sent executives to Washington as negotiations drag on.
Post-PCE dip keeps BTC near $58K as Polymarket sees 99% odds above $54K
On June 25, Bitcoin briefly slid to $58,189 after May PCE data landed near expectations, then bounced toward the high-$59,000s despite ETF outflows and hawkish-rate pressure.
Voter-pressure thesis ripples as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
A political commentary piece says voter sentiment, not Senate Republicans, most constrained Donald Trump’s Iran posture, highlighting how domestic incentives can steer foreign policy.
Fraud-crackdown op-ed sparks 2028 buzz as Polymarket keeps Vance at 19.6%
A new opinion piece says a tougher fraud crackdown is an easy political win for Donald Trump, offering clear messaging and durable contrast.
Trump taps Klomp for deputy health post as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr. at 49%
On June 26, 2026, Donald Trump nominated Chris Klomp to be deputy health secretary, adding another personnel pick tied to his orbit.
Tech-stock slump rattles crypto as Polymarket puts 99% on BTC above $54K
As global tech stocks slid, ether, XRP and dogecoin fell harder than bitcoin, which dipped near $58,000 before rebounding toward $60,000.