IRAN
US strikes Iran, Polymarket invasion odds rise to 14.5%
Early Wednesday, the U.S. launched dozens of strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, rattling markets and raising escalation fears.
Oil jumps on U.S.-Iran tensions as Polymarket puts Hormuz fees at 76% by Dec 31
Brent climbed over 3% to $76.48 a barrel at 06:30 GMT after renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran attack report clouds US-Iran talks as Polymarket Switzerland slips to 31%
A report said Iran attacked Kuwait and Bahrain, reigniting US-Iran tensions and casting doubt on near-term logistics for follow-on talks.
US strikes on Iran lift Polymarket invasion odds to 14.5%
CENTCOM said the U.S. military launched “powerful strikes” against Iran to impose “heavy costs,” escalating pressure on Tehran.
U.S. hits Iran after ship attacks, Polymarket sees 61.5% Hormuz normalcy
Early Wednesday, the U.S. military struck Iran hours after three merchant ships were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating a fragile ceasefire and complicating talks to reopen the waterway.
Iran funeral preparations hit Hormuz normalization bet to 59.5% on Polymarket
Today in Tehran, Iran is holding a funeral procession for its slain supreme leader, with organizers expecting millions to attend amid heightened tensions.
Khamenei funeral draws crowds as Polymarket sees 11.5% odds of US invading Iran
On the second day of funeral ceremonies in Tehran, Iranian TV showed Mostafa, Meysam and Masoud Khamenei praying behind coffins at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla as Mojtaba remained absent.
Iran envoy hints at selective Hormuz fees as Polymarket odds jump to 68%
On Tuesday, an Iranian envoy said countries friendly to Tehran could get “special” treatment if fees are introduced for Strait of Hormuz use.
Khamenei funeral chills diplomacy as Polymarket pegs Switzerland talks at 31%
Iran has begun a days-long funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with large crowds and chants against the U.S. and Israel.
Khamenei funeral begins as Polymarket cuts Iran regime-fall odds to 6.5%
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral began in Tehran, with crowds chanting “Death to America, Death to Israel!” as the ceremony got underway.
Trump touts Iran progress as Polymarket cuts Qatar talks odds to 33.5%
U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to “just about everything” the United States needs, but offered no terms, timing, or location for any next meeting.
Iran warns ships in Hormuz as Polymarket odds of normal traffic slip to 26%
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters told ships in the Strait of Hormuz to stick to designated routes and Iranian navigation rules, warning violators of an immediate response.
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%
A July 1 report citing senior Iranian sources said Tehran is insisting on keeping control over the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring a hard line on authority over the waterway.
Israel sanctions IRGC crypto wallets; Polymarket holds Iran blockade at 31.5%
On Monday, Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced sanctions on dozens of crypto wallets allegedly tied to Iran’s IRGC, aiming to choke off terrorist financing routes.