IRAN
Polymarket odds for Hormuz traffic normal by 2026 drop to 56.5%
Iran’s parliament has begun drafting legislation billed as “management of the Strait of Hormuz,” spotlighting possible changes in how the waterway is handled.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran before 2027 jump to 19% on report
After a third night of U.S. strikes, a report says President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran’s fortified “Pickaxe Mountain” nuclear site and demanded 20% of Strait of Hormuz cargo value.
Polymarket odds rise to 70.5% for Iran Hormuz fees by Dec 31
Over a third straight night, the US reportedly struck Iran as Tehran claimed retaliation around the Strait of Hormuz, with blasts along the southern coast and attacks on vessels.
Polymarket odds hit 99.95% for Iran Gulf action by July 9 after Trump remarks
In an Oval Office media conference, President Donald Trump said the US should be paid by wealthy Gulf oil producers to secure the Strait of Hormuz from Iran and warned of another “major attack” on
Polymarket: Iran regime fall odds dip to 9.5% as Israel sets Oct. 27 vote
Israel’s parliament set national elections for October 27, with Benjamin Netanyahu confirming he’ll run as criticism over security failures and the Gaza war hangs over the campaign.
Polymarket odds dip to 67% on Iran Hormuz fees by Dec 31 after strike reports
Iranian state media reported nearly a dozen “enemy projectiles” hit Qeshm Island, with new explosions in Bandar Abbas, calling it a fifth wave of US strikes since a ceasefire three weeks ago.
Polymarket prices Iran invasion risk at 19.5% after expanded U.S. strikes
Over several days, U.S.
Polymarket: Hormuz normalization by July 15 at 0.35% Yes on $9.8M
After a new exchange of fire, the U.S. and Iran each claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, even as an initial deal to reopen it and extend a shaky ceasefire emerged.
Polymarket odds for Iran Gulf action fall to 66.5% after Hormuz claim
Iran’s IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz was closed in response to US interference, as Israel’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon continued with reported civilian casualties.
Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by Jul 15 at 0.35% Yes
A new report details rising Iran–US tensions and dueling claims about Strait of Hormuz shipping, even as mediator channels stay active and Iran’s hardliners talk retaliation.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran rise to 16.5% after strike footage report
The U.S. military reportedly released footage described as showing new strikes on Iran, renewing escalation fears.
Polymarket odds jump to 83.5% for July 12 in Iran Gulf action ladder
After a vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command said roughly 140 targets in Iran were struck, followed by retaliatory attacks affecting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Jordan.
Polymarket cuts Hormuz normalization odds to 63.5% after Iran closure claim
A report says US forces launched a third round of strikes on Iran this week after the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic returns to normal by Dec.
Polymarket odds jump to 57.5% for Iran action on July 12 after Hormuz report
After a civilian vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, a report said the U.S. began a third round of strikes on Iran as Tehran again declared the strait closed.