Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikes
A report says the U.S. military reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports and launched hours-long strikes on dozens of targets after attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket prices Golden Ball at 50% despite Spain reaching World Cup final
On Wednesday in Dallas, Spain beat France 2-0 to reach Sunday’s World Cup final, with Mikel Oyarzabal scoring a penalty and Pedro Porro adding another.
Polymarket odds: Newsom leads 2028 Dem nominee at 20% as DDHQ outlook hits
A fresh DDHQ forecast calls for Democrats to win the House while the Senate sits 50-50 in November.
Polymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation report
Late Tuesday night, a report said Iran struck Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan and claimed it destroyed the US Fifth Fleet’s command centre after talks collapsed.
Polymarket odds peg Starmer at 98% as next leader out before 2027
Reporting says Donald Trump’s choice to lead the CDC may face a smoother confirmation than other nominees, easing near-term political friction.
Polymarket odds put Farage at 96% in Clacton by-election market
After an ICE agent fatally shot Colombian national Joan Sebastián Guerrero in Maine, a fundraiser has raised nearly $300,000 and ICE reportedly paused most vehicle stops amid the investigation.
Polymarket odds for Putin exit by June 2027 jump to 18% on $17.5M volume
A Mexico updates feed this week featured South Texas flood warnings, ICE-custody death probes, and 2026 World Cup ticket and fan-event items, with no mention of Russian leadership.
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threat
A July 15 report said Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants next week if no deal emerges, adding escalation risk around Strait of Hormuz security expectations.
Polymarket odds: Vance holds 19.95% in 2028 market as Fed inflation talk hits
A new commentary quoted Kevin Warsh saying the Federal Reserve has “no tolerance” for rising inflation and that inflation “will be a thing of the past.” Polymarket traders watch how that narrative
Polymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike fall to 52.5% as traders trim bets
A macro/FX note on the Indian rupee says it has attracted bids as traders pare back expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes.