Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by Jul 15 at 0.35% Yes
A new report details rising Iran–US tensions and dueling claims about Strait of Hormuz shipping, even as mediator channels stay active and Iran’s hardliners talk retaliation.
Polymarket Golden Ball odds hold at 50% as Golden Boot race heats up
World Cup 2026’s Golden Boot race tightened as Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe stayed level on eight goals, with Jude Bellingham’s two-goal knockout pushing him to six.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran rise to 16.5% after strike footage report
The U.S. military reportedly released footage described as showing new strikes on Iran, renewing escalation fears.
Polymarket prices Starmer at 98.5% in next leader out before 2027 market
A July 9–10 HarrisX poll of 1,019 registered voters found higher self-reported 2026 midterm voting intent among Trump/MAGA Republicans than Democrats, even as ballot tests leaned Democratic.
Polymarket Taiwan invasion odds drop to 3.75% as No holds 96%
A new commentary warns Washington can’t defer managing North Korea even amid distractions, arguing delays compound regional risks.
Polymarket odds jump to 83.5% for July 12 in Iran Gulf action ladder
After a vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command said roughly 140 targets in Iran were struck, followed by retaliatory attacks affecting Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Jordan.
Polymarket prices 4% chance Trump acquires Greenland by 2027 as odds dip
A party-process story in Maine about Democrats applying 2024 lessons and a replacement process involving Platner is the latest headline tied to the Greenland question, but it offers no concrete
Polymarket odds for zero Fed cuts in 2026 dip to 78% as $41.8M trades
On Saturday, Bitcoin held gains above $64,000 as U.S. crypto policy stayed in focus, keeping macro expectations in play.
Polymarket odds peg BTC above $54K at 99.95% as $64K sits near 46%
Bitcoin hovered near $63,800 over the weekend despite new U.S. airstrikes on Iran and reports Tehran again closed the Strait of Hormuz, with traditional markets shut.
Polymarket odds: United Russia slips to 53.5% as Ukraine strikes reported
Ukraine’s General Staff said it struck Russia’s Syzran oil refinery in Samara and hit Sea of Azov maritime targets, with fires reported and damage under assessment.