Polymarket odds crash to 4.5% on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
A report says Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed after an “unauthorized” vessel was hit, raising fears of prolonged shipping disruption.
Polymarket cuts Hormuz normalization odds to 63.5% after Iran closure claim
A report says US forces launched a third round of strikes on Iran this week after the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Polymarket traders care because the “traffic returns to normal by Dec.
Polymarket: 2026 Fed hike odds ease to 59% after bond-ETF catalyst
A bond-focused write-up recently pitched corporate bonds for 2026 and spotlighted FCOR, an active investment-grade ETF that can use derivatives and charges a 36 bps fee, as a way to stay “durable” if
Polymarket odds lift Mbappé to 34% in 2026 Ballon d’Or market
A new RBC Wealth Management note warned the Federal Reserve could reverse 2025 “insurance cuts” or even avoid raising rates, underscoring how quickly policy expectations can shift.
Polymarket odds show Vance leading 2028 field at 19.85%
A published analysis featuring CNN’s Harry Enten warns a “Democratic Socialist primary revolt” could become “a new Tea Party, but it’s on steroids,” reshaping coalitions and primary outcomes.
Polymarket World Cup Golden Ball odds flat at 50% as volume tops $6.24M
England’s 2026 World Cup path now points to a July 11 quarterfinal vs Norway in Miami after wins over DR Congo and Mexico, as the Golden Boot race tightens.
Polymarket prices Hormuz normal-by-July-31 at 6.5% after escalation
On July 10, a segment reported the U.S. president ordered strikes after claiming Iran broke a ceasefire by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran targeting U.S. interests in Gulf states.
Polymarket odds put Anthropic at 94.5% in best AI model race
A major AI-linked memory-chip supplier debuted on Wall Street, opening at $170 and raising $26.5 billion as it ramps DRAM and high-bandwidth memory capacity amid shortages that could last to 2030.
Polymarket: US invade Iran odds rise to 14.5% on talks and ceasefire noise
Trump said the U.S. would keep talks after Iran sought negotiations, then wrote the June 17 ceasefire is “over,” as Tehran disputed the request and clashes persisted near Hormuz traffic.
Polymarket: Hormuz normal-by-Jul15 odds at 0.35% as No hits 99.65%
A report says US-Iran tensions spiked during a 60-day negotiation window, with attacks linked to Strait of Hormuz shipping even as officials signal talks may continue.