Polymarket odds lift July Fed hold to 78% as hike risk stays on ladder
U.S. stocks inched higher as AI-linked winners extended weekly gains, with Treasury yields also ticking up ahead of major bank earnings.
Polymarket odds hold: 56.5% on Sept Fed no-change after AI task force
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh named leaders of five outside-led task forces at the central bank, including an AI group led by Marc Andreessen, economist Charles I. Jones, and Xbox CEO Asha Sharma.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran before 2027 rise to 15.5% on $40M
On July 10, 2026, an analysis said the U.S. is pivoting from direct pressure on Iran to a hybrid, multilayered attrition strategy built around coalitions and peripheral reshaping.
Polymarket pegs BTC above $52K at 99.95% as July 12 ladder pivots near $64K
Bitcoin rebounded about 3.5% to nearly $64,000 after dipping near $61,850, a report says, driven by liquidations and a weaker dollar.
Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 slip to 78% after Warsh task forces
Kevin Warsh named experts to five Federal Reserve task forces to review policy and operations, with findings to be reported back to FOMC officials and potential changes expected this year.
Polymarket keeps Golden Ball odds flat at 50% as Mbappe–Messi buzz grows
France’s 2-0 win over Morocco set up a semifinal and kept the Mbappe–Messi duel in focus, with both tied on eight tournament goals after Mbappe rebounded from a missed penalty.
Polymarket odds lift Troy Jackson to 57.5% in Maine Dem Senate nominee race
A recent podcast episode detailed a rapidly escalating crisis around Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner, including calls for him to step down amid controversies and sexual abuse allegations.
Polymarket odds hit 8.5% for Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31
Explosions were reported across parts of Iran as U.S.
Polymarket sees Sept Fed hold at 56.5% as rate-hike bets linger
After the Fed released June meeting minutes showing officials split on where rates end 2026, a Kalshi report put the chance of a hike this year near 54%.
Polymarket prices 99.95% BTC above $52K July 12 after NH bond rejection
On July 8, New Hampshire’s Executive Council voted 3-2 to reject a proposed $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond after a public finance hearing.