Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed policymakers split on whether rates might rise or fall, while voting unanimously to keep the benchmark at 3.5%–3.75%.
Polymarket drops Iran regime-fall odds to 8.5% amid ceasefire strain
Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are testing a fragile Iran–US ceasefire extension amid renewed strikes and missile/drone exchanges.
Polymarket odds price 16.5% chance of U.S. invading Iran before 2027
Markets turned risk-off after Donald Trump said a ceasefire with Iran was “over,” following U.S. strikes tied to attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz as Brent jumped 5.2% to $78.02.
US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal
Tuesday, US Central Command said it began strikes on Iran after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran promising a “crushing response.” Polymarket
Kyiv hit before NATO Ankara summit as Polymarket puts Putin exit by 2027 at 18%
A Russian missile strike destroyed a residential building in Kyiv as crews cleared debris after an overnight barrage that killed at least 22 people, with Ukraine saying 68 missiles and 351 drones
Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58%
On July 7, 2026, Donald Trump faulted NATO allies for not backing the U.S. during its conflict with Iran, questioning the alliance’s burden-sharing.
Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5%
Canada’s dollar strengthened as oil prices climbed, with traders bracing for upcoming U.S. jobs data that could reshape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Trump scraps Iran MoU, oil jumps as Polymarket prices Hormuz normalcy at 0.85%
U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran memorandum to end the conflict was “over” and warned of additional strikes Wednesday night, sending oil up and stocks lower.
Sheeran serenades England as Polymarket Golden Ball odds stay split at 50%
Ed Sheeran played a private acoustic set for England’s squad at its Kansas City base ahead of Saturday’s World Cup quarter-final vs Norway in Miami.
Trump says Iran ceasefire is over as Polymarket trims 2028 Dem odds
On Monday, Donald Trump said the Iran ceasefire was “over” and dismissed negotiations as “a waste of time,” signaling dim prospects for de-escalation.