Iran vows Hormuz control as Polymarket prices 75.5% odds traffic stays abnormal
After talks with Washington in Switzerland ended, Iran said it will keep administering the Strait of Hormuz and that conditions won’t return to pre-war norms.
Trump cites Reflecting Pool vandalism as Polymarket keeps Starmer at 82.5%
Washington’s Reflecting Pool will be drained after Donald Trump again blamed vandalism for bright green algae and peeling paint, citing arrests and promising proof in court.
Czech cabinet bars Pavel from NATO summit as Polymarket keeps Putin exit at 8.5%
Prague’s government said President Petr Pavel won’t be part of the Czech delegation to the July 7-8 NATO summit in Ankara, prompting him to consider a Constitutional Court challenge.
BofA flags 2026 hikes; Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 73.5%
After the latest FOMC meeting, Bank of America shifted its call to three quarter-point Fed rate hikes in 2026, citing fading tolerance for above-target inflation and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin
Trump-Iran inspections dispute lifts Polymarket’s 2028 Vance odds to 20.25%
During weekend Switzerland talks, JD Vance said an inspections deal with Iran would mark a milestone, after Trump claimed IAEA inspectors would return and Tehran denied new commitments.
World Cup prediction betting surges as Polymarket keeps Spain "Other" at 50%
About 11 days into the tournament, data showed $5.4 billion wagered on World Cup prediction markets, with Kalshi at $2.9 billion and Polymarket at $2.5 billion since last July.
IBM touts $4.5B AI savings as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 83.5%
Over the past three years, IBM said its “client zero” AI-and-automation program cut $4.5 billion in spending by applying the tools to its own operations.
Restore Britain taps Marlon West as Bardella slips to 24.5% on Polymarket
Restore Britain on Monday named Marlon West as its Greater Manchester mayoral candidate ahead of the 30 July vote triggered by Andy Burnham’s move to Parliament.
Ras Laffan blast spotlights Gulf shipping as Polymarket puts 20+ Hormuz at 99%
Sunday night’s explosion at Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility killed at least 13 and injured 66, though officials said exports won’t be affected and called it an accident.
Vance cites Iran progress; Polymarket puts Hormuz normal-traffic at 48.5%
In Bürgenstock, Switzerland, U.S.