US ELECTION PREDICTION MARKETS
Hormuz blockade shock lifts Becerra to 89% on Polymarket California gov race
After a U.S.
World Cup nostalgia essay hits as Polymarket keeps Newsom atop 2028 Dem odds
On June 21, 2026, an essay traced how a nearly six-year-old’s new obsession with the World Cup reshaped family routines, blending sticker books with YouTube highlights.
Zelenskiy presses Belarus as Polymarket trims Bardella to 24.5%
For a second day, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Belarus to dismantle four alleged relay stations aiding Russian drone strikes, warning Kyiv could act within a week.
Starmer leadership turmoil as Polymarket lifts Lula to 51.5% in Brazil race
Over the weekend, talk inside Labour that Keir Starmer would stay to fight a leadership challenge faded, raising expectations Britain could soon see its seventh prime minister in 10 years.
Burnham by-election jolt as Polymarket keeps Newsom atop 2028 Dem odds
A recent Newscast episode spotlighted Labour’s Andy Burnham winning the Makerfield by-election with nearly 25,000 votes, fueling fresh talk of a possible challenge to Keir Starmer.
Burnham’s by-election win coincides with Lula rising to 51.5% on Polymarket
On Friday in northwest England, Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election with nearly 55% of the vote, boosting talk of a Labour leadership challenge to Keir Starmer.
Johor election turns on affordability as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
Johor’s Jul. 11 state election is being shaped by housing and cost-of-living strains, despite the state’s 6.4% GDP growth in 2024 and record RM110 billion in approved investments this year.
House GOP moves to bar lawmaker prediction bets as Polymarket has Newsom 23.85%
Rep. Bryan Steil plans to add a ban on lawmakers and their families betting on political and policy prediction markets to a pending House stock-trading bill.
UK by-elections open as Polymarket pegs Peru Fujimori 0.2–0.3% at 94%
Thursday’s by-elections opened in two constituencies on Scotland’s east coast, with voters also casting ballots in Makerfield, Greater Manchester, as polling-day rules curb campaign reporting.
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South Korea ballot probe as Polymarket puts Lula at 50.5% in Brazil 2026
On June 18, South Korea’s parliament approved a probe into ballot shortages that hit June 3 municipal elections and led to the election commission chief’s resignation.
Scotland by-elections set stage as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
Scottish voters are choosing MPs today in two east-coast Westminster by-elections after SNP resignations, with results due early Friday.
Starmer warns Burnham as Polymarket prices Shepherd loss at 99.5%
After returning from the G7, Keir Starmer warned Andy Burnham not to rush into a leadership contest as the Makerfield by-election nears, insisting he’ll fight any challenge.
U.S.-Iran MOU sparks backlash as Polymarket has Newsom at 23.8%
Over the weekend, a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was agreed and later made public, criticized for lacking verification and offering sweeping sanctions relief and regional commitments.
Scotland by-election podcast airs as Polymarket pegs Fujimori 0.2–0.3% at 92%
On June 17, Radio Scotland’s Politics Show ran a pub-quiz-style preview of by-elections in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry after SNP MPs moved to Holyrood.
Makerfield by-election heats up as Polymarket holds Bardella at 25.5%
With Thursday’s Makerfield by-election days away, Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon made final pitches in a tight race that could shape Labour’s leadership dynamics.
