POLYMARKET
Supreme Court Cook ruling lifts Polymarket July Fed hold odds to 80.5%
On a macro update segment, Jefferies strategist David Zervos said inflation should move lower in the second half of 2026, as the Supreme Court ruled President Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa
Analysts turn bullish on Applied A&D as Polymarket sees 78% odds of no Fed cuts
After its post-IPO blackout ended this month, Applied Aerospace & Defense drew new buy/outperform calls, with shares last Friday at $20.53 after a $20 IPO.
UN report on POW abuses lifts Polymarket Crimea recapture odds to 14%
From December 2025 to May 2026, UN monitors documented credible reports of 37 Ukrainian servicemen executed and widespread torture and sexual violence against POWs.
Trump targets Fed Gov Cook as Polymarket puts Starmer exit odds at 91.5%
After a Supreme Court decision, Donald Trump renewed calls to force Fed Governor Lisa Cook off the Board, reviving debate over presidential power and central-bank independence.
Iran rules out near-term US talks as Polymarket puts Dec. 31 deal odds at 45.5%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said there would be no Iran-US talks in the coming days, signaling no immediate diplomatic engagement.
Lapid alleges Netanyahu "satellite parties" as Polymarket backs Eizenkot 41.6%
Opposition leader Yair Lapid said Benjamin Netanyahu is building “satellite parties” ahead of Israel’s next election, arguing it signals he expects defeat.
Supreme Court rebuff hits Trump as Polymarket holds RFK Jr. at 49%
On Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected Donald Trump’s bid to overturn the $5 million E. Jean Carroll verdict, leaving the civil judgment intact.
Dnipro strike hits Ukraine as Polymarket raises Crimea recapture odds to 13.5%
Russian forces struck an industrial facility in Dnipro, killing four people and later leaving 21 wounded, according to regional officials.
Ross impeachment warning hits Polymarket as Starmer exit odds rise to 91.5%
Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Democrats would move to impeach Donald Trump if they win the U.S. House in November, raising the stakes for the midterms.
BTC below $60K as Polymarket pegs 99.85% odds above $52K by June 30
June 29 analysis says Bitcoin remains below key gauges like the 200-day moving average and short-term holder cost basis, leaving price between distant support and resistance.
Disney license pressure campaign stirs 2028 chatter as Vance leads Polymarket
Pro-Trump groups are preparing to press Brendan Carr to pursue actions that could strip Disney’s TV licenses, escalating the campaign-era fight over media regulation.
Risk-on mood lifts July Fed hold odds to 81.5% on Polymarket
Broader markets stayed risk-on as traders tracked U.S.-Iran developments for any escalation that could jolt volatility and growth expectations.
Voter character debate boosts Lula to 56.5% on Polymarket Brazil election
A political commentary piece this week argued voters, not parties, set the incentives that shape candidates’ character, urging integrity and fitness as decisive criteria.
U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%
Brent crude rose about 0.9% Monday to $73.21 after U.S. Central Command said it struck Iran over alleged vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%
Fresh exchanges between the United States and Iran have put a reported preliminary understanding in doubt, complicating the push toward a finalized nuclear agreement.
