POLYMARKET
Iran rejects US Hormuz hotline as Polymarket sees just 3.55% for normal traffic
Iran’s IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said a proposed US-Iran Strait of Hormuz hotline “has not happened and will not happen,” as reports described renewed fire and a ship hit late Thursday.
Maher–Vance clash spotlights Trump fraud claims as Polymarket keeps Vance at 19%
Bill Maher confronted JD Vance over Donald Trump’s 2020 election-fraud claims, urging him to stop amplifying the rhetoric.
Asia AI launches test US export curbs as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 85.5%
Two weeks after a U.S. order blocked global access to Anthropic’s Mythos and Fable models, China’s 360 unveiled the Tulongfeng tool and Sakana AI launched Fugu, pitching export-control resilience.
Iran warns of swift response as Polymarket puts 59% odds on June 27 strike
A senior Iranian official said Iran would respond swiftly and decisively to alleged U.S. agreement violations, amplifying uncertainty over near-term escalation.
GOP Senate primary tests Trump’s sway as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr. at 49%
In a new report, a Republican Senate hopeful tries to outflank a Trump-backed rival by leaning harder into MAGA priorities, testing whether endorsements still decide primaries.
Crypto slide leaves Netherlands–Morocco Polymarket odds steady at 44.5%
Over the past week, major cryptocurrencies slid as investors rotated into AI-linked stocks, with bitcoin down 5.3% to about $60,345 after a brief dip and rebound.
Iran cites retaliation strikes as Polymarket pegs July 7 shipping hit at 89.5%
Iran said it struck US-linked targets in retaliation for earlier US attacks, underscoring a readiness to answer pressure with force and widening concerns about escalation beyond military sites.
Garlinghouse warns on Strategy financing as Polymarket sees 99.4% BTC above $54K
In a Friday interview, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said Strategy’s preferred-share bitcoin funding is “financial engineering” and noted STRC fell about 25% below par as BTC slipped under $59,000.
Bolton guilty plea dents Polymarket odds for US-Iran nuclear deal by Dec 2026
Former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton pleaded guilty to illegally retaining classified information, renewing focus on how sensitive documents are handled.
US strikes put Iran trips in focus as Polymarket pegs Trump at 5%
On the same day the United States carried out new strikes involving Iran, Iran’s national team stayed in contention for a World Cup berth amid rising tensions.
Trump attacks ex-NSA aide after plea as Polymarket puts Starmer exit at 91.5%
After a former national security adviser pleaded guilty, Donald Trump publicly denounced him and urged harsh punishment, intensifying attention on legal fallout from his orbit.
S&P reaffirms US AA+ as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 80.5%
On June 27, 2026, S&P affirmed the United States’ AA+ sovereign credit rating and kept its outlook stable.
Zelensky sets NATO agenda as Polymarket puts Crimea recapture odds at 12.5%
Ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will prioritize air defense, energy resilience, EU integration, and pressure on Russia, after securing 160 recovery deals
Iran strike report lifts Polymarket Hormuz normalization odds to 31.5%
A report said Iran targeted U.S. military positions in retaliation for earlier American airstrikes, raising fears of wider escalation and shipping disruptions.
Colorado Dem governor race grabs attention as Bardella holds 25.5% on Polymarket
A new report spotlighted the emerging Colorado Democratic governor primary, contrasting Phil Weiser and Michael Bennet on priorities and positioning.
