POLYMARKET
Mass drone strikes lift Polymarket odds of Ukraine retaking Crimea to 12%
Overnight into Friday, Russia said it intercepted 660 Ukrainian drones, with strikes reported near Moscow and Russian-occupied Crimea and temporary flight limits at the capital’s main airports.
Hormuz vessel attack lifts oil as Polymarket puts July 15 normalcy at 29.5%
Brent crude jumped up to 4% after the UN maritime agency halted an evacuation plan for ships near the Strait of Hormuz following a cargo-vessel attack.
Trump curbs OpenAI launch as Polymarket prices Newsom at 20.7%
A report says the Trump administration intervened to limit the launch of OpenAI’s latest model, signaling tighter federal scrutiny of advanced AI releases.
Hormuz strike jolts Iran-entry market as Polymarket cuts Trump odds to 15%
A report said Iran struck a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening worries about shipping security in a key chokepoint.
Trump cites Iran funds for farm buys as Polymarket holds deal-by-Aug 31 at 25.5%
Donald Trump was reported saying the US would soon buy farm goods with unfrozen Iranian funds.
House Luna standoff jolts timelines as Polymarket puts Starmer out next at 89.5%
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has effectively halted U.S. House floor activity, leaving Republicans divided over how the impasse started and what restarts business.
Iowa pesticide ruling fuels politics as Polymarket 2028 GOP odds flat
A court decision on pesticides has heightened the stakes in Iowa’s governor race, forcing candidates to sharpen positions on farm regulation and environmental oversight.
Supreme Court border ruling as Polymarket raises Putin exit odds to 9.5%
On Thursday, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6-3 to lift a lower-court block on an asylum-limiting border practice the Trump administration could revive.
House Dem election-threats forum nudges Bardella down to 24.5% on Polymarket
On June 25, 2026, House Democrats hosted a live forum on threats to elections, spotlighting concerns about voting risks.
Anthropic-Alibaba Claude dispute lifts Polymarket lead to 85.5%
In a June 10 letter to Senators Tim Scott and Elizabeth Warren, Anthropic accused Alibaba-linked operators of running 28.8 million Claude exchanges via 25,000 fraudulent accounts from April 22 to
Hormuz ship hit lifts risk as Polymarket normal-traffic odds jump to 55%
A maritime agency said a vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring ongoing security risks in the vital shipping corridor.
Scotland routed by Brazil as Polymarket pegs Iraq group exit at 98%
After Scotland’s 3-0 loss to Brazil left them seventh among third-placed teams, Steve Clarke said he thinks they’re heading home as qualification hinges on other results.
Hot PCE inflation fuels rate-hike talk as Polymarket puts Starmer exit at 89.5%
In May, the PCE inflation index rose to 4.1% year over year, its hottest in three years, keeping the Fed alert to another hike if price pressures persist.
Bitcoin futures hit $58,995 as Polymarket tags 99% odds above $54K by June 27
Thursday’s bitcoin futures slide briefly pushed prices to $58,995, the weakest since October 2024, as options activity skewed toward puts.
Core PCE jitters hit Bitcoin as Polymarket pegs Anthropic at 98.4%
Ahead of Thursday’s 8:30 a.m. ET core PCE release, Bitcoin’s one-week options skew showed a near 25-point premium for puts over calls as traders braced for downside.
