POLYMARKET
Ukraine hits Russian refineries as Polymarket Crimea recapture odds rise to 14%
Overnight, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil refineries in Krasnodar and Yaroslavl, calling them “long-range sanctions” to strain Moscow’s war resources.
South Lebanon strike report drops Iran regime-fall odds to 0.05% on Polymarket
A report said an Israeli strike was carried out in south Lebanon in recent days, though officials haven’t confirmed details.
Louisiana report spotlights Trump’s grip as Polymarket holds RFK Jr. at 49%
Recent moves in Louisiana are portrayed as cementing Donald Trump’s dominance in state Republican politics, leaving rivals with little leverage.
Bitcoin holds near $59.9K as Polymarket prices 99% odds above $54K
A market video update showed Bitcoin at $59,933.12, down 0.61% on the session, while also referencing Binance legal troubles.
Vucic resignation plan lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit to 12.5%
At a pro-government rally in Belgrade, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said he intends to resign within the next few weeks, paving the way for early elections.
U.S. hits Iran again as Trump vows escalation, Polymarket keeps him at 1.65%
On June 28, 2026, a report said the United States launched fresh strikes on Iran as Donald Trump warned he would “complete the job,” raising uncertainty.
Letlow primary win shifts Iran-entry market as Polymarket puts Senators at 55%
Trump-backed Letlow won the Republican primary for Sen. Bill Cassidy’s U.S. Senate seat, reinforcing Trump’s sway in GOP nominations and keeping Capitol Hill in focus.
Adorni quits in Milei graft storm as Polymarket boosts Eizenkot to 41.6%
On Saturday, Javier Milei’s cabinet chief Manuel Adorni resigned as prosecutors probe alleged illicit enrichment tied to lavish spending and property.
US strikes Iran as Polymarket odds peg Starmer exit before 2027 at 90.5%
On the second straight day of attacks, the U.S. military said it struck multiple targets in Iran as a ceasefire came under strain.
GOP affordability feud hits headlines as Polymarket’s Newsom slips to 20.65%
Former President Donald Trump is facing pressure on his affordability pitch as Republicans clash over the SAVE America Act, complicating efforts to keep cost-of-living front and center.
Chernihiv drone strike lifts Polymarket Ukraine-Crimea recapture odds to 14%
Overnight in Chernihiv, Russian drone debris damaged a school complex and shattered nearby apartment windows, injuring two people, city officials said.
Katz warns force vs Iran as Polymarket puts Dec 2026 US-Iran deal at 43.5%
Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would use “force” against Iran if Tehran blocks implementation of a Lebanon deal, highlighting risks of escalation.
Report on Trump-era civil rights cuts lifts Polymarket Vance to 19.25%
A new report found Trump-era civil rights cutbacks are pushing student-rights disputes into uneven state rules, agencies, and courts as federal enforcement recedes.
US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds down to 5%
After a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command released video it said showed strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and coastal radar sites.
Gulf security flares pull Polymarket odds to 75% on U.S. House trip to Iran
After U.S. airstrikes, Iranian drones reportedly hit Bahrain and a ship was struck in the strait, adding fresh escalation risk around Gulf routes.
