POLYMARKET
Fetterman–McCormick dodge Shapiro as Polymarket puts Starmer exit at 91.5%
At a Pennsylvania “Great American State Fair” booth, senators John Fetterman and Dave McCormick shared a stop while sidestepping questions about Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Azteca showdown vs Ecuador nudges Mexico to 43.5% on Polymarket
Tuesday at Azteca Stadium, co-host Mexico and Ecuador meet with a last-16 spot on the line after Ecuador’s 2-1 comeback over Germany and Mexico’s perfect, unbeaten group run.
Tehran presses for Hormuz control as Polymarket sees 7.5% odds of normal traffic
In a live war update, Tehran insisted on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while separate accounts pointed to talks involving the United States.
Hegseth Pentagon firings spur Hill scrutiny as Polymarket stays at 49%
Congress is pressing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for answers after a wave of senior Pentagon firings, including Gen. Chris Donahue, raised bipartisan worries about wartime decision-making.
US-Iran strike pause shifts 2028 betting, Polymarket puts Vance at 19.25%
A U.S. official said Washington and Tehran agreed to halt strikes and meet this week, signaling a near-term push to cool tensions.
Iran cancels technical talks as Polymarket puts 2026 deal odds at 45.5%
After recent attacks, Iran canceled planned technical talks, state TV reported, offering no new timetable and adding uncertainty to the nuclear track.
Dnipropetrovsk hit refocuses front as Polymarket Crimea odds rise to 13.5%
Over the past day, Russian forces launched 40-plus attacks across Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, injuring two people and damaging homes and infrastructure, local officials said.
Ceasefire-collapse report hits Polymarket as Trump Iran-entry odds slide
A new report warned the U.S.-Iran ceasefire could still fail, casting doubt on how long the current pause in hostilities lasts.
Murphy pushes $25 minimum wage as Polymarket prices Vance at 19% for 2028
On Sunday, Sen. Chris Murphy said a $25 federal minimum wage could help Democrats win back working-class voters, backing his Living Wage for All Act to phase it in over years.
US-Iran MoU keeps deal clock ticking as Polymarket prices 44.5% by Dec 31
A June 28 opinion analysis said the US-Iran MoU is best seen as a pause, not a peace framework, warning Tehran may abandon commitments when convenient.
BofA sees 75 bps Fed hikes as Polymarket keeps 2026 no-cuts at 77%
Bank of America updated its outlook this week, raising global growth expectations and projecting 75 bps of additional Fed hikes even as inflation cools.
Iran warns on Hormuz as Polymarket July 15 normalization odds drop to 12.5%
Iran’s foreign minister said any challenge to the Strait of Hormuz would “increase tensions,” highlighting risks to the key shipping lane.
Iran attacks widen conflict as Polymarket cuts Trump Iran-entry odds to 10%
After U.S. strikes, Iran reportedly attacked Bahrain and Kuwait and warned it could halt talks to end the war, widening the conflict ahead of the June 30 deadline.
Supreme Court week spotlights Trump power as Polymarket keeps Vance at 19.25%
In the coming week, the Supreme Court is set for a compressed run of major decisions that could define the limits on presidential authority and checks on executive power.
Bitcoin drops below $60K as Polymarket tilts to Netherlands at 45.5%
Over the weekend, bitcoin fell under $60,000 and hovered near $59,940 on Sunday, extending a weak first half as major altcoins also slid.
