DONALD TRUMP PREDICTION MARKETS
Vance heads to Switzerland as Polymarket puts Witkoff at 15.5%
From Joint Base Andrews, Vice President JD Vance flew to Switzerland as U.S.-Iran talks were expected to run overnight Monday amid rising regional tensions.
Trump floats Hormuz tolls as Polymarket Petro-out odds slip to 51.5%
This week, President Donald Trump said the U.S. could impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz if a peace deal with Iran fails, even as officials disputed whether Iran has shut the route.
AP-NORC Iran poll dents Trump as Polymarket keeps Vance atop 2028 race
June 11-17 AP-NORC polling found 65% of U.S. adults disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, with his overall approval at 37% and unchanged since May.
Italy fumes over Trump-Meloni spat as Polymarket keeps Starmer exit at 67.5%
Italy’s foreign minister Antonio Tajani canceled his June 21–22 US trip after reported Trump remarks mocking Giorgia Meloni drew a sharp diplomatic backlash.
Altman cools on IPO talk as Polymarket prices Vance at 19.55% for 2028
Sam Altman said he is “0%” excited to be a public-company CEO as OpenAI reportedly filed confidential preliminary SEC paperwork that can precede an IPO.
Hormuz shipping resumes after ceasefire as Polymarket 2028 GOP odds stay flat
On Friday, Brent crude climbed to $80.38 as at least four tankers entered the Strait of Hormuz after an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, despite Iran signaling tighter transit controls.
Mamdani’s NY primary push watched for 2028 shift as Vance leads Polymarket
On Thursday in Brooklyn, NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani rallied thousands with Bernie Sanders ahead of Tuesday’s New York primaries, urging Democrats to move left and back challengers.
US-Iran deal signed; Polymarket sees Witkoff 22% for ceremony attendance
On Wednesday, June 17, the US and Iran signed an agreement to end their war, with the White House saying it’s in effect and includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though timing is unclear.
Fed signals possible hike; Polymarket keeps RFK Jr. at 49% for 2028 GOP nod
After the Federal Reserve held rates steady, stocks slid and Treasury yields climbed as officials projected a quarter-point increase by year-end.
G7 wraps Evian talks as Polymarket cuts Trump to 5% for US-Iran ceremony
On the G7 summit’s final day in Evian, leaders weighed AI and social media security risks as they sought consensus on Iran and Ukraine ahead of 1300 GMT press conferences.
US order hits Anthropic AI as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr. at 49% for 2028 GOP
On Friday evening, Anthropic disabled its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models after a U.S. government order restricting access for foreign nationals, prompting talks with federal officials on Monday.
Trump touts new Iran peace deal as Polymarket prices oil relief at 98.8%
President Donald Trump has been promoting what he calls a new peace deal with Iran, as JD Vance claimed Tehran’s nuclear program was “comprehensively destroyed” and Barack Obama argued any pact may
Iran signs MoU to end war as Polymarket puts Trump oil relief at 92%
On Sunday, June 14, Iran agreed to the final text of a memorandum that could extend the ceasefire 60 days and set talks on sanctions, Hormuz shipping, and frozen assets.
Kennedy Jr. Leads Polymarket 2028 Nomination Odds as Trump Trails
On Monday, AI stocks rallied after a reported Iran peace deal, even as risk remains elevated ahead of the 2028 Republican nomination contest. Traders note Kennedy Jr.
Trump Odds Drift as Newsom Leads Polymarket 2028 Race
On June 15, 2026, Reuters- or BBC-anchored coverage spotlighted questions about Trump’s fitness for office as markets reassessed the 2028 race.