DONALD TRUMP PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket odds: Vance leads 2028 GOP field at 19.85% ahead of Trump address
A report says Donald Trump will give a Thursday 9 p.m. ET primetime address on elections and newly declassified 2020 intelligence, reviving debate ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Polymarket odds: Starmer exit before 2027 at 98.65% after Iran strikes
A report says the US expanded strikes into northern Iran and disabled a ship trying to run a blockade, adding fresh geopolitical volatility.
Polymarket odds flat: RFK Jr. 49% in 2028 GOP nod market, $675M traded
President Trump appeared in a “Watch Live” item while speaking at a Pennsylvania Defense & Innovation Summit, with no fresh commitments highlighted.
Polymarket odds of Trump out before 2027 tick up to 7.5% on Iran headline
A report attributed to Trump said Iran released an American detainee as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated, a headline some see as a near-term political-risk catalyst.
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tape
A report says JD Vance said the Trump administration “absolutely screwed up” the Epstein files release, thrusting his messaging back into focus.
Polymarket holds 2028 GOP nom odds flat at 49% as hearing stirs 2020 debate
In a new report, Sen. Jon Ossoff pressed John Clayton about who won the 2020 election, reviving disputed claims in a formal hearing setting.
Polymarket prices Starmer at 98.75% to be next leader out before 2027
Democrats grilled intel nominee Jay Clayton in a tense confirmation hearing, spotlighting scrutiny of the nomination process.
Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as 2028 field stays fragmented
The DCCC chair predicted Democrats will retake the House in a new report, framing Trump’s record as a central messaging target heading into 2026.
Polymarket: Trump out by July 31 odds slip to 0.45% after Iran strikes
On 2026-07-15, a report said the US launched new strikes on Iran, escalating a key geopolitical flashpoint.
Polymarket odds peg Starmer at 98% as next leader out before 2027
Reporting says Donald Trump’s choice to lead the CDC may face a smoother confirmation than other nominees, easing near-term political friction.
Polymarket odds: Vance holds 19.95% in 2028 market as Fed inflation talk hits
A new commentary quoted Kevin Warsh saying the Federal Reserve has “no tolerance” for rising inflation and that inflation “will be a thing of the past.” Polymarket traders watch how that narrative
Polymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jab
On July 15, Trump was quoted warning Iran the U.S. would “hit them very hard,” injecting near-term uncertainty into U.S.-Iran posture.
Polymarket odds put Starmer at 97.65% in 'next leader out' market
A recent analysis titled “No end in sight for new Iran war” argues the conflict is far from ending.
Polymarket: Trump out by July 31 priced at 0.55% as Senate bill fight simmers
In a Senate vote, Democrats blocked a $1.15 trillion defense authorization bill, signaling a near-term legislative standoff and procedural uncertainty.
Polymarket 2028 odds: Vance leads at 19.95% as Trump stays near 1%
About a month before Florida’s GOP primary, new polling shows Rep. Byron Donalds leading the field after repeated Trump endorsements.