DONALD TRUMP PREDICTION MARKETS
US-Iran deal signed; Polymarket sees Witkoff 22% for ceremony attendance
On Wednesday, June 17, the US and Iran signed an agreement to end their war, with the White House saying it’s in effect and includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though timing is unclear.
Fed signals possible hike; Polymarket keeps RFK Jr. at 49% for 2028 GOP nod
After the Federal Reserve held rates steady, stocks slid and Treasury yields climbed as officials projected a quarter-point increase by year-end.
G7 wraps Evian talks as Polymarket cuts Trump to 5% for US-Iran ceremony
On the G7 summit’s final day in Evian, leaders weighed AI and social media security risks as they sought consensus on Iran and Ukraine ahead of 1300 GMT press conferences.
US order hits Anthropic AI as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr. at 49% for 2028 GOP
On Friday evening, Anthropic disabled its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models after a U.S. government order restricting access for foreign nationals, prompting talks with federal officials on Monday.
Trump touts new Iran peace deal as Polymarket prices oil relief at 98.8%
President Donald Trump has been promoting what he calls a new peace deal with Iran, as JD Vance claimed Tehran’s nuclear program was “comprehensively destroyed” and Barack Obama argued any pact may
Iran signs MoU to end war as Polymarket puts Trump oil relief at 92%
On Sunday, June 14, Iran agreed to the final text of a memorandum that could extend the ceasefire 60 days and set talks on sanctions, Hormuz shipping, and frozen assets.
Kennedy Jr. Leads Polymarket 2028 Nomination Odds as Trump Trails
On Monday, AI stocks rallied after a reported Iran peace deal, even as risk remains elevated ahead of the 2028 Republican nomination contest. Traders note Kennedy Jr.
Trump Odds Drift as Newsom Leads Polymarket 2028 Race
On June 15, 2026, Reuters- or BBC-anchored coverage spotlighted questions about Trump’s fitness for office as markets reassessed the 2028 race.
Deal odds surge as JD Vance leads Polymarket signs
On Tuesday, Treasury yields slid after talks of a preliminary peace deal between Washington and Tehran, with Polymarket odds rising as traders push for near-term clarity.
Oil sanctions relief odds rise as June 30 deal looms
On June 15, 2026, oil slumped as Trump signaled Iran deal progress and Hormuz reopening, fueling bets on sanctions relief.
Leading JD Vance Favored in U.S.-Iran Deal Predictor on Polymarket
On June 12, traders noted chatter of a U.S.-Iran peace framework, buoying Indian markets as risk sentiment improves.
Oil Sanction Relief Heads Trump-Iran Market as June 30 Proximity Boosts Odds
On June 30, market data shows Oil Sanction Relief priced at about 80% yes, with Troop Withdrawal and Unfreeze Iranian Assets around 70%.
Oil Sanction Relief bets dominate as Iran talks press toward June 30
As talks between the U.S. and Iran move toward a potential agreement by end of June, Tehran signals willingness to discuss curbing nuclear activity and sanctions relief.
Trump Iranian concessions odds edge higher as June 30 nears
On June 8, 2026, BYD, Baidu, and Alibaba were added to a U.S. list of entities aiding Beijing’s military.
Maduro Leads Venezuela Bet as Trump Psychedelics Pivot Roils Markets
The report notes Trump’s move to accelerate psychedelic therapy research for PTSD, signaling a policy shift with broad implications for health and markets.
