DONALD TRUMP PREDICTION MARKETS
Hamas Gaza handover report lifts Polymarket: Maduro 78.65% to lead Venezuela
On July 6, 2026, a report said Hamas dissolved its Gaza government and will transfer authority to a UN-backed committee.
Trump backs July 4 Mall event as Polymarket keeps Starmer exit at 96.75%
Donald Trump said he personally overruled advice to cancel a July 4 National Mall event, putting himself at the center of the decision.
Kyiv hit as Polymarket puts Maduro at 79% to lead Venezuela in 2026
A Russian missile-and-drone assault on Kyiv killed at least five people, with emergency crews responding as aerial attacks persist.
Philippine Senate impeachment trial shifts focus, Starmer 96% on Polymarket
The Philippine Senate has opened an impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, injecting fresh volatility into near-term politics.
McMorrow ends Senate bid as Polymarket pegs Starmer exit at 96.35%
On July 5, 2026, Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow abruptly suspended her U.S. Senate bid, reshaping the Democratic field.
McConnell health scare shifts 2028 chatter as Polymarket tags Vance at 20%
Mitch McConnell was hospitalized after a reported medical emergency, renewing scrutiny of Kentucky’s 2024 law requiring a special election if his seat becomes vacant before January 2027.
Trump’s Salute to America speech leaves Polymarket 2028 GOP odds unchanged
During a live “Salute to America” program, President Donald Trump delivered featured remarks with no policy details released.
Trump signature-currency report hits as Polymarket keeps Vance atop 20.35%
A report said Donald Trump and Scott Bessent previewed a new currency bearing Trump’s signature, adding to his stream of political-economic messaging.
Khamenei funeral spotlights Iran talks as Polymarket keeps Trump at 6.5%
Ceremonies for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei run July 4–9, drawing millions and foreign delegations as Tehran warns against military action and Trump says the U.S.
America 250 report spotlights GOP gender gap as Polymarket puts Vance at 20%
Ahead of July 4 America 250 events, a new report says the celebrations are exposing a widening Republican gender gap in who shows up and how the party’s outreach is received.
Putin faces Ukraine war strain as Polymarket holds RFK Jr. at 49% for 2028 GOP
A new report calls the Ukraine war a growing “crisis” for Vladimir Putin, saying pressure on the Kremlin is intensifying as the conflict drags on.
D.C. heat shuts state fair as Polymarket pegs Starmer exit odds at 97%
On Friday, organizers shut Washington, D.C.’s Great American State Fair until 5 p.m. after 11 visitors were hospitalized amid triple-digit heat.
Trump cases update moves 2028 bets as Polymarket keeps Vance at 20%
A July 4, 2026 report says Donald Trump’s criminal cases remain a moving timeline, with multiple proceedings still unresolved and schedules uncertain.
Trump impeachment headline hits as Polymarket holds RFK Jr at 49% for GOP 2028
On July 4, a Politico post labeled “Trump Impeachment” put impeachment talk around former President Donald Trump back into the spotlight.
Trump’s Mount Rushmore speech lifts Polymarket to 97.45% on Starmer exit
On July 4 at Mount Rushmore, Donald Trump delivered an upbeat holiday address while warning of a Communist “enemy.” Polymarket traders are watching for political fallout as the “Next leader out of